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These data were generated with MAXENT 3.3.3k freeware (Phillips et al. 2011) using climate data and fire probability data for for three time periods: reference (1900-1929), mid-century (2040-2069) and late century (2070-2099), and community occurrence point data extracted from LANDFIRE Environmental Site Potential (ESP). Future time period data are from three global climate models (GCMs): CGCM, GFDL, and HadCM3. In MAXENT, we used the logistic output format (generating presence probabilities between 0 and 1), a random test percentage of 30 (using 70 % of the occurrence points to generate the suitability model and 30 % of the occurrence points to validate it), and a jackknife test to measure variable importance....
Tags: Climate Change,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Environmental Suitability Models,
Fire,
LANDFIRE, All tags...
MAXENT,
New Mexico,
Oklahoma,
Plants,
South Central CASC,
Texas,
Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags
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These data were generated with MAXENT 3.3.3k freeware (Phillips et al. 2011) using climate data and fire probability data for for three time periods: reference (1900-1929), mid-century (2040-2069) and late century (2070-2099), and community occurrence point data extracted from LANDFIRE Environmental Site Potential (ESP). Future time period data are from three global climate models (GCMs): CGCM, GFDL, and HadCM3. In MAXENT, we used the logistic output format (generating presence probabilities between 0 and 1), a random test percentage of 30 (using 70 % of the occurrence points to generate the suitability model and 30 % of the occurrence points to validate it), and a jackknife test to measure variable importance....
Categories: Data;
Types: Downloadable,
GeoTIFF,
Map Service,
Raster;
Tags: Climate Change,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Environmental Suitability Models,
Fire,
LANDFIRE, All tags...
MAXENT,
New Mexico,
Oklahoma,
Plants,
South Central CASC,
Texas,
Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags
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Abstract (from Springer): Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although...
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Isolated patches of native vegetation in human-modified landscapes are important reservoirs of biological diversity because they may be the only places in which rare or native species can persist. Manassas National Battlefield Park, Virginia, is an island embedded in a matrix of intensively modified lands; it is becoming increasingly isolated due to growth of the greater Washington, D.C. area. A series of cliffs along Bull Run support an eastern white pine community disjunct from its more typical range in the Appalachian Mountains. Cliffs frequently support vegetation communities that differ from surrounding habitat. In this ecological context, the cliffs along Bull Run are islands of specialized habitat within...
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This supplementary table contains raw and relative (normalized) data for metrics measuring exposure (yellow columns), sensitivity (green columns), constraints on adaptive capacity (blue columns), and vulnerability for units in the US National Park Service Midwest administrative region. Stippled columns contain relative (normalized) data used to calculate the corresponding component. Vulnerability (two climate scenarios) was calculated as the mean of the three components. Metrics marked with an asterisk (*) were not calculated for parks with footprints greater than 90% developed.
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