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Abstract (from Wiley Online Library): Annual distributions of waterfowl during the nonbreeding period can influence ecological, cultural, and economic relationships. We used previously developed Weather Severity Indices (WSI) that explained migration by dabbling ducks in eastern North America and weather data from the North American Regional Reanalysis to develop an open-access internet-based tool (i.e., WSI web app) to visualize and query WSI data. We used data generated by the WSI web app to determine whether the weather known to elicit southerly migration by dabbling ducks had changed, from October to April 1979 to 2013. We detected that the amount of area in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways with weather...
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Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167506): Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled...
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