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Jerad D Bales

Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jawr.12179/abstract): Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures ( T ). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use (LU) and climate change (CC) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jawr.12178/abstract): We developed a stochastic hourly stream temperature model (SHSTM) to estimate probability of exceeding given threshold temperature ( T ) for specified durations (24 and 96 h) to assess potential impacts on freshwater mussels in the upper Tar River, North Carolina. Simulated daily mean stream T from climate change (CC) and land-use (LU) change simulations for 2021-2030 and 2051-2060 were used as input to the SHSTM. Stream T observations in 2010 revealed only two sites with T above 30°C for >24 h and T s were never >31°C for more than 24 h at any site. The SHSTM suggests that the probability, P , that T will exceed 32°C for...
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Modeling the Response of Freshwater Mussels to Changes in Water Temperature, Habitat, and Streamflow
North American freshwater mussels are in serious decline as a result of pollution and habitat destruction from human activities. In addition, many mussel species are living in habitats that push the upper limits of their heat tolerance, which may become problematic as the climate and, as a result, water temperatures warm. As part of this project, we created a set of models to predict how freshwater mussels would respond to climate change effects. Our primary objective was to help federal and state natural resource managers forecast how mussel species will respond to climate change over the next 30 to 50 years, so that managers can develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address these changes. Additionally,...
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