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Person

Kishor Jaiswal

Research Civil Engineer (Structural)
Email: kjaiswal@usgs.gov
Office Phone: 303-273-8584
Fax: 303-273-8452
ORCID: 0000-0002-5803-8007

Location
P.O. Box 25046
Mail Stop 966
Denver , CO 80225-0046
US
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Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast such events and official protocols for disseminating the potential implications. This capability, known as Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), could provide valuable situational awareness to emergency managers, the public, and other entities interested in preparing for potentially damaging earthquakes. With the various...
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3) Comparison with previous models
A comparison of the 2017 USGS South America seismic hazard model with the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) model and the 2010 USGS preliminary model was made to see how the models differ. The comparisons were made as ratios of PGA at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Ratio maps of each comparison are included as a geo-referenced tiff (GeoTIFF).
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A seismic hazard model for South America, based on a smoothed (gridded) seismicity model, a subduction model, a crustal fault model, and a ground motion model, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. These models are combined to account for ground shaking from earthquakes on known faults as well as earthquakes on un-modeled faults. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.1 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2-second period with a 50 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years.
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2) Probabilistic seismic hazard maps and data for South America
Seismic hazard curves were determined using the USGS seismic hazard model for South America. The curves represent the annual rate of exceedance versus peak horizontal acceleration or horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- or 1.0-second periods, for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.1 degrees in latitude and longitude. The hazard curves were used to prepare maps and gridded data that portray peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with a 2%, 10%, and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and a uniform site condition (Vs30) of 760 m/sec. MMI maps for 2%, 10%, and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years were derived from PGA...
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A seismic hazard model for South America, based on a smoothed (gridded) seismicity model, a subduction model, a crustal fault model, and a ground motion model, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. These models are combined to account for ground shaking from earthquakes on known faults as well as earthquakes on un-modeled faults. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.1 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period with a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years.
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