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Article detailing the science and synthesis that happend at the Powell Center. https://eos.org/project-updates/seismic-hazard-assessment-honing-the-debate-testing-the-models
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Despite the best monitoring networks, the highest rate of earthquakes and the longest continuous recorded history in the world, this year’s M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake was completely unforeseen. The Japanese had expected no larger than a M=8 quake in the Japan trench, 1/30 th the size of the Tohoku temblor. This year also saw the devastating M=6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake and the M=5.8 Virginia quake, and it marks the bicentennial of the enigmatic but destructive 1811 - 1812 M~7 ½ New Madrid, Missouri, earthquakes, each event an example of how poorly we can forecast earthquake rates or their ultimate size in the planet’s vast intraplate regions far from plate boundaries. The goal of the Global...
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Probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment (PSHA) has been a standard input to the engineering, planning, and insurance industries for over four decades. The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of how PSHA is performing in the modern world. PSHA has been, after all, the focus of considerable criticism in the literature in recent years, particularly after the occurrence of major devastating earthquakes in many parts of the world. In this chapter, I discuss the advantages and limitations of PSHA in light of the recent criticisms, and then discuss the new developments that are contributing to PSHA, or are expected to do so in the future.
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