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Hawaiʹi’s most widespread native tree, ʹōhiʹa lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), has been dying across large areas of Hawaiʹi Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ʹŌhiʹa Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawaiʹi Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ʹōhiʹa. This data set is a georeferenced raster file, containing the projected potential presence of C.lukuohia across the main Hawaiian Islands using climatic...
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We created a comprehensive estimate of potential distribution for a subset of 17 ecosystem modifying invasive plants (EMIPs) in Hawaiʻi. This work uses methods that integrate a wide set of data sources including agency and citizen science data, but perhaps more importantly, the integration of regional and global distribution information for these species. We built three sets of ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) for each species. We first built global and regional ensemble distribution models for each species. Then, to create a comprehensive estimate of potential invasive species distribution for our study species in Hawaiʻi, we built nested regional models that integrate our global and regional ensemble...
Categories: Data;
Tags: Baseline Climate,
Ecology,
Ensemble Model Projections,
Hawai’i,
Invasive Plants, All tags...
Main Hawaiian Islands,
Nested Models,
Species Distribution Models,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
biota, Fewer tags
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Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated...
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One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future (pseudo-global warming) climate scenarios. This simple analysis allowed us to map the potential risk of excess rainfall across the...
Tags: Climate Shift,
Climatology,
Ecohydrology,
Ecology,
Hawai’i, All tags...
Hydrology,
Infiltration,
Land Use Change,
Landcover,
Main Hawaiian Islands,
Rainfall,
Runoff,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Fewer tags
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Global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world, however, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we show steps to improve the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) to provide credible climate scenarios for regional climate change impact studies. Our approach is based on three steps: 1) Using a standardized baseline period, comparing available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets (if available); 2) bias correcting projections using observation-based data; and 3) creating ensembles to make use of the...
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