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Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0199.1): Future snowfall and snowpack changes over the mountains of Southern California are projected using a new hybrid dynamical–statistical framework. Output from all general circulation models (GCMs) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive is downscaled to 2-km resolution over the region. Variables pertaining to snow are analyzed for the middle (2041–60) and end (2081–2100) of the twenty-first century under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP8.5 (business as usual) and RCP2.6 (mitigation). These four sets of projections are compared with a baseline reconstruction of climate from 1981 to 2000....
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To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, can enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models.
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2012,
CASC,
Completed,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Data Visualization & Tools, All tags...
Downscaling,
Federal,
Projects by Region,
Science Tools for Managers,
Science Tools for Managers,
Southwest,
Southwest,
Southwest CASC,
bcsd,
climate,
climate change,
downscale,
downscaled climate projections,
dynamical,
ecosystem,
gcm,
maca,
model,
modeling,
multiple,
roms,
simulation,
statistical,
water,
wrf, Fewer tags
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The goal of this project was to: (a) archive the relevant AR5 model output data for the southwest region; (b) downscale daily temperature and precipitation to 12 X 12 km cell spatial resolution over the Southwest; (c) assess the precision (degree of agreement) of the simulated models; (d) assess the direction and magnitude of change in projections between AR4 and AR5, as well as assess projections of key extreme climatic events (i.e., extreme drought, extreme seasonal precipitation, extreme high and low temperature events); and (e) assess critical ecosystem impacts (i.e., climate water deficit and fire; hydrological condition of major river systems; impacts on highly valued species).
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2011,
CASC,
Completed,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Data Visualization & Tools, All tags...
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Federal,
Multiple,
Other Water,
Other Water,
Projects by Region,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Science Tools for Managers,
Science Tools for Managers,
Southwest,
Southwest,
Southwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2012,
Bolinas Lagoon,
CA,
CASC,
California, All tags...
Coastal,
Coastal Habitats,
Completed,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Federal,
Humboldt Bay,
Morro Bay,
Newport Bay,
Projects by Region,
Pt. Mugu,
SF Bay/Delta,
San Pablo Bay,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Southwest,
Southwest CASC,
Tijuana River,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
animals,
assessment,
birds,
climate change,
coastal,
conservation,
dem,
downscale,
dynamical,
gcm,
geomorphology,
gis,
hydrology,
intertidal,
management,
marsh,
model,
multiple,
nearshore,
plants,
sea level rise,
sediment,
sf bay,
shoals,
slr,
storm,
tidal,
vegetation,
vulnerability,
wrf, Fewer tags
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The goal of this project was to examine how temperature and precipitation could change by the mid 21st century over the greater Los Angeles region. Major findings for temperature are: (1) large variability in the magnitude exists among downscaled global climate model projections over LA, but all predict warming; (2) warming is smaller over the ocean and coastal zone, but larger in the mountain areas and inland; (3) ensemble mean warming in all parts of the domain is significantly outside the range of historical variability, meaning the change will be detectable. Major findings for precipitation are: (1) large variability in both sign and magnitude exists among downscaled global climate model precipitation projections...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2012,
CASC,
Climate and Land-Use Change,
Completed,
Data Visualization & Tools, All tags...
Data Visualization & Tools,
Projects by Region,
Projects by Region,
Science Tools for Managers,
Science Tools for Managers,
Southwest,
Southwest,
Southwest CASC, Fewer tags
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