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Anna R Armitage

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Global climate change is leading to large-scale shifts in species’ range limits. For example, rising winter temperatures are shifting the abundance and distributions of tropical, cold sensitive plant species towards higher latitudes. Coastal wetlands provide a prime example of such shifts, with tropical mangrove forests expanding into temperate salt marshes as winter warming alleviates past geographic limits set by cold intolerance. These rapid changes are dynamic and challenging to monitor, and uncertainty remains regarding the extent of mangrove expansion near poleward range limits. Here, we synthesized existing datasets and expert knowledge to assess the current (i.e., 2021) distribution of mangroves near dynamic...
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This data set contains measurements of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) leaf damage following the February 2021 freeze event that affected mangroves in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
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Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Quantifying ecosystem responses to extreme events at the landscape scale is critical for understanding and responding to climate-driven change but is constrained by limited data availability. Here, we integrated remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify landscape-scale vegetation damage from an extreme climatic event. We used ground- and satellite-based black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) leaf damage data from the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA and Mexico) to examine the effects of an extreme freeze in a region where black mangroves are expanding their range. The February 2021 event produced coastal temperatures as low...
Abstract (from British Ecological Society): Near the tropical‐temperate transition zone, warming winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of freeze‐sensitive tropical organisms. In coastal wetlands of eastern and central North America, freeze‐sensitive woody plants (mangroves) are expected to expand northward into regions currently dominated by freeze‐tolerant herbaceous salt marsh plants. To advance understanding of mangrove range expansion, there is a need to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove freeze damage, mortality, and recovery. We integrated data from 38 sites spread across the mangrove range edge in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of North America, including...
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To advance understanding of mangrove range dynamics in eastern North America, there is a need to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove freeze damage, mortality, and recovery. Here, We integrated data from 38 sites spread across the mangrove range edge in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, including data from a regional collaborative network called the Mangrove Migration Network (https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wetland-and-aquatic-research-center-warc/science/mangrove-migration-network). In 2018, an extreme freeze event affected 60 percent of these sites, with minimum temperatures ranging from 0 to -7 degrees Celsius. We used temperature data and vegetation measurements from...
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