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Great Lakes fishery managers and stakeholders have little information regarding how climate change could affect the management of recreationally and commercially important fisheries, which have been valued at more than $7 billion annually. Our research has focused on how climate change could influence fish habitat (including water temperature, ice cover, and water levels), phytoplankton production, and ultimately fish production. Focusing on lakes Michigan and Huron, this webinar provids information about: whether we can detect climate signals in long-term data on fisheries and phytoplankton preliminary climate (e.g., water temperature, ice cover) forecasts for 2043-2065 how future climate could influence growth...
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A Coupled Hydrosphere Atmosphere Research Model was developed that predicted vertical water temperature profiles, ice cover, and precipitation within 40-km grids and lake levels for Lakes Huron between 2058 and 2066. In this data set, daily predicted water temperature profiles are summarized for four regions in Lake Huron (north: North of 45 degrees N; central: between 43 degrees 55 minutes N and 45 degrees N; south: south of 43 degrees 55 minutes N; south-shallow: only areas less than <40 m bottom depth and south of 43 degrees 55 minutes N). Model output was driven by the Canadian CRCM3 GCM and assumed SRES A2 scenario greenhouse gas concentrations.
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Projections of regional climate, net basin supply (NBS), and water levels are developed for the mid- and late twenty-first century across the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Two state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RCM) interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, and then a hydrologic routing model is forced with time series of perturbed NBS. The dynamical downscaling and coupling with a lake model to represent the Great Lakes create added value beyond the parent GCM in terms of simulated seasonal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, limitations related to this rudimentary treatment of the Great Lakes result...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Climate,
Dynamical Downscaling,
Great Lakes,
Mammals,
Northeast CASC, All tags...
Northeast CASC,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags
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Objective 1: Revise an independent regional (or “downscaled�) climate model to forecast air and water temperature, water level, and ice cover into the late 21st century. Brent Lofgren (NOAA, co-PI) and Marjorie Perroud (NOAA, post-doctoral scientist) have worked on regional climate modeling and the associated simulation of lake temperature profiles under past (1964-2000) and future (2043-2070) time periods. This was accomplished by using the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM), a regional climate model that couples the atmosphere to both land and lake surfaces, driven at its lateral boundaries by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis’ (CCCma) Coupled General Circulation Model...
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A Coupled Hydrosphere Atmosphere Research Model was developed that predicted vertical water temperature profiles, ice cover, and precipitation within 40-km grids and lake levels for Lake Michigan between 2058 and 2066. In this data set, daily predicted water temperature profiles are summarized for four regions in Lake Michigan (north: North of 45 degrees 20 minutes N; central: between 43 degrees 30 minutes N and 45 degrees 20 minutes N; south: south of 43 degrees 30 minutes N; south-shallow: only areas less than <40 m bottom depth and south of 43 degrees 30 minutes N). Model output was driven by the Canadian CRCM3 GCM and assumed SRES A2 scenario greenhouse gas concentrations.
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