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Brian W. Miller

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This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of rangeland vegetation dynamics in southwest South Dakota. It was co-designed with resource management partners to support scenario planning for climate change adaptation. The study site encompasses part of multiple jurisdictions, including Badlands National Park, Buffalo Gap National Grasslands, and Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. The model represents key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition (i.e., distribution of ecological community phases). See Miller et al. (2017) for further details. The model was built using the ST-Sim software platform (www.apexrms.com/stsm)....
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Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. Theclimatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodologicaldecisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climateprojections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM)performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecologicalmodels. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments onmean projected...
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