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The current project is aimed at developing a policy-oriented methodology for the integrated assessment of the global warming problem. Decision analysis in general and influence diagrams in particular appear to constitute an appropriate integrated assessment methodology. The influence-diagram approach is illustrated at a preliminary integrated modeling of the global warming problem. In next stages of the research, attention will be shifted from the methodology of integrated assessment to the contents of integrated models.
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Two field studies revealed large differences among various subgroups in the population of car drivers. Private drivers, commuters, and business drivers differed strongly with respect to current decisions and behaviour which affect CO2 emissions, and with respect to their sensitivity to various policy instruments. Several promising policy targets were identified" combinations of user groups and behaviours where substantial CO2 reduction may be achieved. The sensitivity of different car user groups to various policy measures showed whether and how desired behavioral changes may be realised.
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