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Kevin Dodds

Abstract (from Nature Climate Change): In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects1,2,3,4,5. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change6. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modelling approach and current-generation general circulation model output under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5....
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Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast
Overview This project examines the ecological impacts of several introduced and expanding forest insects and diseases on forest habitats across the northeastern US and upper Lake States region. To address these novel threats, this work applies large-scale, co-developed experimental studies documenting impacts of ash mortality from emerald ash borer on lowland black ash communities in the Lake States and northern hardwood forests in New England; regional assessments of the impacts of the climate change-mediated expansion of southern pine beetle into northeastern pine barren communities; and ecological characterizations of areas experiencing suppression efforts to reduce the spread of the introduced Asian long-horned...
Abstract (from Agricultural and Forest Entomology): Climate change is facilitating a novel range expansion of southern pine beetle (SPB) into globally rare north-eastern pitch pine barrens. By assessing stand conditions present in SPB-infested and uninfested pitch pine stands on Long Island, NY, USA, we developed a regionally-calibrated hazard rating model that predicts stand-level SPB susceptibility. The model indicates that a stand's SPB susceptibility increases with (1) increasing pitch pine basal area, (2) increasing instances of previous year SPB spots nearby, and (3) sandy soil texture. The model informs adaptation strategies to a novel pest dynamic by supporting the identification and prioritization of...
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