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Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without...
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In the boreal forest of North America, as in any fire-prone biome, three environmental factors must coincide for a wildfire to occur: an ignition source, flammable vegetation, and weather that is conducive to fire. Despite recent advances, the relative importance of these factors remains the subject of some debate. The aim of this study was to develop models that identify the environmental controls on spatial patterns in area burned for the period 1980-2005 at several spatial scales in the Canadian boreal forest. Boosted regression tree models were built to relate high-resolution data for area burned to an array of explanatory variables describing ignitions, vegetation, and long-term patterns in fire-conducive weather...
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Fire regimes of the Canadian boreal forest are driven by certain environmental factors that are highly variable from year to year (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and others that are relatively stable (e.g., land cover, topography). Studies examining the relative influence of these environmental drivers on fire activity suggest that models making explicit use of interannual variability appear to better capture years of climate extremes, whereas those using a temporal average of all available years highlight the importance of land-cover variables. It has been suggested that fire models built at different temporal resolutions may provide a complementary understanding of controls on fire regimes, but this claim has...
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This paper quantifies the influence of anthropogenic linear disturbances on fire ignition frequency in the boreal forests of western Canada. Specifically, we tested if linear features increase the frequency of lightning fires, and whether this relationship is affected by spatial resolution. We considered fires that ignited between 1995 and 2002 within a similar to 67 000 km(2) region of boreal mixed- wood forest in north-eastern Alberta where linear features are highly abundant and spatially heterogeneous. We constructed Poisson, Negative Binomial and Zero-Inflated Poisson models at two spatial resolutions (similar to 10 000 and similar to 2400 ha), including covariates for linear feature densities, forest composition,...
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The emulation of natural disturbances such as fire is a prominent harvest management strategy for ecosystems in Canada's boreal forest region, but the effect of harvesting on subsequent lightning fire occurrence has not been studied systematically in the mixedwood boreal forest. We quantified the relationship between annual patterns of lightning fire initiation, forest composition, lightning, and fire weather conditions over eight years (1994-2001) in a 60,000 km(2) region of actively harvested mixedwood boreal forest in western Canada. Our analyses illustrated that forest harvesting and burning had opposite effects on subsequent fire initiation, so harvest was not a surrogate for fire. Fire initiation increased...
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