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Mark A. Merrifield

Abstract (from AGU100): The state of Hawaiʻi and city of Honolulu experienced an unprecedented number of minor flooding episodes during 2017 due to the combination of seasonal high tides and record‐high mean sea levels. To quantify the impact of sea level rise on the tendency for flooding events to cluster in future years, we developed a hierarchical statistical model describing the number of days per year for which sea level exceeds a prescribed threshold in Honolulu as a function of annual mean sea level and the amplitude of the highest tides. Based on this model, we generate probabilistic projections of exceedance days per year for the 21st century, which show pronounced inflections in the frequency of exceedance...
American Samoa is experiencing rapid relative sea level rise due to increases in global sea level and significant post-2009 earthquake land subsidence, endangering homes and critical infrastructure. Wave and water-level observations collected over a fringing reef at Faga‘itua Bay, American Samoa, in 2017 reveal depth-limited shoreline sea-swell wave heights over the range of conditions sampled. Using field data to calibrate a one-dimensional, phase-resolving nonhydrostatic wave model (SWASH), we examine the influence of water level on wave heights over the reef for a range of current and future sea levels. Assuming a fixed reef bathymetry, model results predict rising sea levels will escalate nearshore extreme water...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Projecting the Frequency and Impact of Future Coastal Flooding and Inundation Events in the Pacific Islands
Increasing numbers of hazardous inundation events due to climate change is a serious threat to the culture, habitat, and infrastructure of the Hawaiian and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. The information currently available to stakeholders, however, is primarily confined to maximum or mean water level and does not include how often incursions are likely to occur. We propose to quantify the effect of local factors and Pacific climate variability on the frequency of inundation events in centers of population and infrastructure in Pacific island communities. We will produce seasonal outlooks that project the number of incursions above a given level at a particular site in 3-6 month windows. We choose seasonal outlooks,...
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