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Mike Dettinger

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Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region
The goal of this project was to: (a) archive the relevant AR5 model output data for the southwest region; (b) downscale daily temperature and precipitation to 12 X 12 km cell spatial resolution over the Southwest; (c) assess the precision (degree of agreement) of the simulated models; (d) assess the direction and magnitude of change in projections between AR4 and AR5, as well as assess projections of key extreme climatic events (i.e., extreme drought, extreme seasonal precipitation, extreme high and low temperature events); and (e) assess critical ecosystem impacts (i.e., climate water deficit and fire; hydrological condition of major river systems; impacts on highly valued species).
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Assessing the Use of Climate Information in Resource Management Decisions in the Southwest
In the Southwestern U.S., rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are resulting in changes such as more frequent and severe wildfires and prolonged drought. Natural resource managers striving to make decisions in the face of these changing conditions can benefit from information on past, present, and future climate. While an array of climate assessments are available, it is unclear how useful or relevant this information is for resource management decision-making in the Southwest. This project sought to identify the types of environmental information that resource managers in the Southwest need to make climate-related management decisions. To meet this goal, researchers first assessed the degree...
A new dataset and publication developed by researchers working with the DOI Southwest Climate Science Center helps identify the ecological impacts of atmospheric rivers in the interior Southwest. Researchers examined how atmospheric rivers affect dryland vegetation productivity and thus fuel loads available for wildfires.
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Linking Extreme Storms to Changes in Precipitation, Ecosystems, and Wildfire Patterns in the Sierra Nevada
The majority of the West Coast’s most extreme storms have been linked to atmospheric rivers, a meteorological phenomenon in which large amounts of moisture are carried in narrow bands from over the Pacific Ocean to western North America. While weak atmospheric rivers are critical providers of winter rain and snow, stronger events can cause extreme flooding, mudslides, and avalanches – leading to potentially catastrophic damage to life and property. Extreme winter storms, including those linked to atmospheric rivers, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. The goal of this project is to identify how these extreme events impact ecosystems and communities across the Southwest....
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