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Mike Richman

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Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis
Drought is a common consequence of climate variability in the south-central U.S., but they are expected to occur more often and become more intense with climate change. Natural resource managers can improve their planning efforts with advance warnings of impending drought. Using input from resource managers in the Chickasaw Nation, this research team previously created models that forecast droughts up to 18 months in advance with information about their expected timing and intensity. Developed for all climate divisions in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, these drought models rely on input from predictor variables associated with global weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña. However, it is unclear...
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Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States
Drought is a common result of climate variability in the south-central United States. With increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns expected in the future, drought will continue to stress water quantity and quality in this region. University of Oklahoma researchers have demonstrated that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a measure of long-term drought conditions, can help predict drought patterns at multi-county scales in south-central Oklahoma. The model forecasts future PDSI using larger-scale climate drivers, commonly referred to as “teleconnections,” such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These teleconnections...
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