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Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture model (NPMM) for annual streamflow maxima over the central US (CUS) which uses downscaled climate model precipitation projections to forecast extremal streamflow. Spatial dependence for the model is specified as a convex combination of transformed Gaussian and max-stable processes, indexed by a weight parameter which identifies the asymptotic regime of the process. The weight parameter is modeled as a function of the annual precipitation for each of...
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Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models, such as Gaussian processes, are poorly suited for modeling extreme events. Spatial extreme value models with more realistic tail dependence characteristics are under active development. They are theoretically justified but give intractable likelihoods, making computation challenging for small datasets and prohibitive for continental-scale studies. We propose a process mixture model (PMM) which specifies spatial dependence in extreme values as a convex combination of a Gaussian process and a max-stable process, yielding...
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The US faces multiple challenges in facilitating the safe, effective, and proactive use of fire as a landscape management tool. This intentional fire use exposes deeply ingrained communication challenges and distinct but overlapping strategies of prescribed fire, cultural burning, and managed wildfire. We argue for a new conceptual model that is organized around ecological conditions, capacity to act, and motivation to use fire and can integrate and expand intentional fire use as a tool. This result emerges from more considered collaboration and communication of values and needs to address the negative consequences of contemporary fire use. When applied as a communication and translation tool, there is potential...
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