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Taylor, Stephen W.

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Many of the world's forests are likely to face multiple stresses under a rapidly changing climate. Understanding the impact of climate change on tree species suitability is therefore crucial for forest management planning and policy development. We use the Douglas-fir and spruce (white spruce, Engelmann spruce, and interior spruce) forests of British Columbia as a case study. The impact of projected climate change on these forests was assessed using flexible bioclimatic envelope models appropriate for areas with sparse species locations records. Analysis of the model results focused on quantifying uncertainty due to differences between global climate models, emissions scenarios, and spatial resolution of climate...
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This paper examines the risks associated with forest insect outbreaks in a changing climate from biological and forest management perspectives. Two important Canadian insects were considered: western spruce budworm (WSBW; Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), and spruce bark beetle (SBB; Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby, Coleoptera: Curculionidae). This paper integrates projections of tree species suitability, pest outbreak risk, and bio-economic modelling. Several methods of estimating pest outbreak risk were investigated. A simple climate envelope method based on empirically derived climate thresholds indicates substantial changes in the distribution of outbreaks in British Columbia for two...
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Trends of summer precipitation and summer temperature and their influence on trends in summer drought and area burned in British Columbia (BC) were investigated for the period 1920–2000. The complexity imposed by topography was taken into account by incorporating high spatial resolution climate and fire data. Considerable regional variation in trends and in climate–fire relationships was observed. A weak but significant increase in summer temperature was detected in northeastern and coastal BC, whereas summer precipitation increased significantly in all regions—by up to 45.9 %. A significant decrease in province-wide area burned and at the level of sub-units was strongly related to increasing precipitation, more...
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