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Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0088.1): A comprehensive understanding of the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal patterns in cloud cover frequency over the Hawaiian Islands was developed using high-resolution image data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. The Terra and Aqua MODIS cloud mask products, which provide the confidence that a given 1-km pixel is unobstructed by cloud, were obtained for the entire MODIS time series (10-plus years) over the main Hawaiian Islands. Monthly statistics were generated from the daily cloud mask data, including mean cloud cover...
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Abstract (from http://climatechangeresponses.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40665-016-0015-2): Background Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. Results The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely...
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These files contain two datasets. First are vertical fluxes of energy, water vapor and carbon dioxide calculated by the eddy covariance technique using measurements taken at Olaa tower (Flux Data). Second are results of historical and future runs of the Community Land Model (CLM) for the Thurston and Olaa tower sites (CLM Output Data). Output includes time series of energy, water vapor, and carbon dioxide exchanges at each site. The historical runs are forced by gap-filled measured time series at each site. Future data sets were contructed by shifting values in the historical run by increments selected for possible future scenarios. Increments were based on the results of statistical downscaling of future climate...
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While there has been rapid advancement in the development and application of statistical downscaling methods for climate projection, determining the best predictive large-scale climate information for the targeted local climate variable remains a challenge. The choice of predictor variables is one of the most influential steps of model development and has the potential to lead to varying results, contributing to the total uncertainty of future projections. Despite being a well-known problem, predictor selection often does not receive adequate attention and the development of a straightforward and feasible prescreening process is needed to provide guidance to simple (e.g., linear regression) and complex (e.g., machine...
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Recent work to extend the instrumental record of Hawaiian rainfall (available since the early 1900s ) back several centuries indicates the presence of large and significant variations in rainfall on decadal time scales (see time series graphic above). Parallel efforts to understand agricultural changes in the Hawaiian Islands prior to European influences suggests that after about 1650 CE there was a shift in emphasis to productive maximizing strategies, with implications for the region’s economic and socio-political stability.The above is one of the motivating ideas for conducting this workshop. Previous work by several of the participants argued that an increased reliance on risky product maximization strategies...
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