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Abstract (from AMS): Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across...
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Abstract (from RMetS): Snowfall and snow season length across Alaska control the surface hydrology and underlying soil properties and also influence near‐surface air temperature by changing the energy balance. Current projections of warming suggest that considerable change will occur to key snow parameters, possibly contributing to extensive infrastructure damage from thawing permafrost, an increased frequency of rain‐on‐snow events and reduced soil recharge in the spring due to shallow end‐of‐winter snowpack. This study investigates projected changes to mean annual snowfall, dates of snow onset and snowmelt and extreme snowfall for Alaska, using dynamically downscaled reanalysis and climate model simulations. These...
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Abstract (from MDPI): Landslides along road corridors in Alaska national parks pose threats to public safety, visitor access, subsistence activities, and result in costly remediation of damaged infrastructure. Landslide risk in these areas, which contain near-surface permafrost, is associated with mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) above freezing and heavy precipitation events. Historical (1981–2020) values of MAAT and summer precipitation (JJA PCPT) from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Reading, UK) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) were compared to mid-century (2021–2060) and late-century (2061–2100) downscaled climate model projections across Gates of the Arctic National...
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