Simulating the effects of climate change on lakes in a small headwater watershed using a coupled groundwater/surface-water model

A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Trout Lake Water, Energy and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project has been the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. Because of the highly conductive nature of the outwash sand aquifer and the topography of the watershed, streamflow is dominated by groundwater contributions; however, runoff does occur during intense rainfall periods and spring snowmelt. The coupled groundwater/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this effort because it could easily incorporate an existing groundwater flow model and provides for simulation of surface-water processes. The model was calibrated using data [...]