ALI PCA Relative Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Results Web Mapping Service
Summary
In 2014, the Arid Lands Initiate (ALI) developed a set of shared Priority Core Areas (PCAs) for conservation using a Marxan-based approach (see the Phase 1 report here for details). Subsequently, we conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment CCVA) for those PCAs, and the map service below displays those results. The full background and methods for creating for this map service, along with results interpretation, are provided in the final report for the second phase of the project (available here). A basic summary is provided below: A significant amount of climate change research has been completed in the region, much of it funded by the GNLCC and the NW Climate Science Center, and it provided a firm foundation for this [...]
Summary
In 2014, the Arid Lands Initiate (ALI) developed a set of shared Priority Core Areas (PCAs) for conservation using a Marxan-based approach (see
the Phase 1 report here for details). Subsequently, we conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment CCVA) for those PCAs, and the map service below displays those results.
The full background and methods for creating for this map service, along with results interpretation, are provided in the final report for the second phase of the project
(available here). A basic summary is provided below:
A significant amount of climate change research has been completed in the region, much of it funded by the GNLCC and the NW Climate Science Center, and it provided a firm foundation for this analysis. This project adopted an approach of organizing this recent information into a coherent vulnerability framework. The guiding question for this analysis can be framed as “how strong is the evidence that a PCA and its conservation targets are vulnerable to climate change?” In essence, this is a meta-assessment that attempts to provide decision support for the ALI partnership by rolling up existing information into one accessible product. The nature of the decisions can be articulated as: “Will investment in a conservation target within a PCA be a viable long-term investment? Are there certain strategies within a PCA that should be implemented that are “climate-smart”?
Like most CCVAs, this analysis articulates three major components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure represents the external threat to the target system, species, or place from changing climate; sensitivity represents intrinsic qualities (e.g., a narrow suitable temperature range) that make the target more susceptible to negative impacts from climate change; and adaptive capacity represents the ability of the target to cope with climate change.
The key result of this CCVA analysis is a relative climate change vulnerability score for each PCA, and the analysis also yielded relative scores for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Layers for overall vulnerability and its three major components are available in the service below (top layers must be turned off to see the layers below them). In these layers, the scores indicate whether the PCA is above average for each component of vulnerability, and for overall vulnerability. Truth values for these variables range from -1 to 1, and are classified into quintiles (5 groups with an equal number of PCAs).