Spatial Models of Wild Bird Risk Factors for Highly Pathogenic A(H5N1) Avian Influenza Virus Transmission

Dates

Publication Date: 2022-04-26
Time Period: 2016

Citation

Prosser, D.J., Hungerford, L.L., Erwin, R.M., Ottinger, M.A., Takekawa, J.Y., Newman, S.H., Xiao, X., and Ellis, E.C., 2022, Spatial Models of Wild Bird Risk Factors for Highly Pathogenic A(H5N1) Avian Influenza Virus Transmission: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9B6ZDUR.

Summary

Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae) are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using geographic information software and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 km resolutions for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two types of spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance by species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on species specific prevalence values. Spatial patterns of [...]

Summary

Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae) are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using geographic information software and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 km resolutions for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two types of spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance by species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on species specific prevalence values. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR.

Contacts

Point of Contact :: Diann J Prosser
Originator :: Diann J Prosser, Laura L. Hungerford, Michael Erwin, Mary Ann Ottinger, John Y Takekawa, Scott H. Newman, Xiangming Xiao, Erle C. Ellis
Metadata Contact :: Diann J Prosser
Publisher :: U.S. Geological Survey
Distributor :: U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
SDC Data Owner :: Eastern Ecological Science Center
USGS Mission Area :: Ecosystems

Attached Files

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2021-Prosser-IP-125104-China Waterfowl Abundance and Prevelance Models.xml Original FGDC Metadata	View	18.54 KB	application/fgdc+xml
AbundanceModels_BreedingSeason.zip		6.97 MB	application/zip
AbundanceModels_WinteringSeason.zip		11.29 MB	application/zip
CoefficientOfVariationLayers_Breeding.zip		6.8 MB	application/zip
CoefficientOfVariationLayers_Wintering.zip		11.47 MB	application/zip
PrevalenceModels_Breeding.zip		6.8 MB	application/zip
PrevalenceModels_Wintering.zip		11.28 MB	application/zip

Related External Resources

Type: Related Primary Publication

Prosser, D. J., Hungerford, L. L., Erwin, R. M., Ottinger, M. A., Takekawa, J. Y., Newman, S. H., Xiao, X., and Ellis, E. C., 2015, Spatial Modeling of Wild Bird Risk Factors for Highly Pathogenic A(H5N1) Avian Influenza Virus Transmission: Avian Diseases, v. 60, no. 1s, p. 329-336. https://doi.org/10.1637/11125-050615-Reg	https://doi.org/10.1637/11125-050615-Reg

Purpose

These data were developed to enable inclusion of wild waterfowl into avian influenza transmission risk models.

Spatial Models of Wild Bird Risk Factors for Highly Pathogenic A(H5N1) Avian Influenza Virus Transmission

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