Sediment and Phosphorous runoff from the Maumee River watershed, with the largest drainage of any of the great lakes watersheds, have been identified as significant contributors to water quality problems in the western basin of Lake Erie. Sediment and nutrient loading have been associated with increased harmful algal blooms and these blooms and sediment impact the most productive fishery in the Great Lakes. We use a calibrated SWAT model and climate model predictions to model the anticipated changes of discharge, sediment and phosphate from the Maumee River, both in terms of total volume and in temporal distribution of discharge. The model was calibrated to flow volume, sediment concentration and P concentrations. In addition to NLCD [...]