In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months. This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere (evapotranspiration). [...]
Summary
In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months.
This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere (evapotranspiration). Using this model, researchers will be able to refine the boundaries of fire-prone areas in Alaska, based on which areas are prone to particularly high moisture deficit and summer temperatures. Maps will be created that identify which regions of the state currently have a high risk of wildfire, as well as which regions can expect to have an elevated risk of fire in the future to support adaptation planning. This research will also have broad applicability to other regions of the country facing uncertainty about future wildfire risk.
Understanding the impacts of climate on fire regimes is a key research priority of the Alaska Fire Science Consortium, an interagency group that represents represents multiple federal, state, and educational organizations throughout Alaska and the Lower 48. Through close collaboration with this consortium, as well as Landscape Conservation Cooperatives in Alaska, local resource managers, water coalitions, Native Corporations, and other community stakeholders, researchers will ensure that their work provides timely and relevant science to support on-the-ground decision-making needs.
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Fire_AK_NPS.jpg “Fire in Alaska - Credit: NPS”
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Purpose
Recent research into Alaska’s wildfire regimes identified the ecoregions where a combination of moisture deficit and elevated temperatures are linked to increased wildfire vulnerability (Young et al., 2016). In the Young et al. study, moisture deficit is represented by total precipitation minus total potential evapotranspiration during a given month or year; however, this approach does not reflect the storage of precipitation in snowpack during half the year and the widespread replenishment of soil moisture that occurs in the spring as snow and ice melt. By accounting for the delayed release of winter precipitation as melt water, we will refine estimates of moisture deficit in Alaska. The USGS Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM) is a conceptual hydrologic model used for decades to perform hydrologic research. In recent research funded by the Alaska Climate Science Center, the MWBM was enhanced to simulate glaciers and their contributions to streamflow. Additional enhancements added to the MWBM include improved representations of melt rates, sublimation, the variable permafrost active layer, and surface depressions. We will apply the new MWBM throughout Alaska to refine estimates of moisture deficit and wildfire vulnerability. By improving understanding of climate impacts on fire regimes in Alaska, this proposal directly addresses a high priority research need identified by the Alaska Fire Science Consortium. Close collaboration with Alaska’s five Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC) will ensure alignment of the proposed research with LCC priorities and effective dissemination of results. Long term partnerships with local resource managers, watershed coalitions, and other local stakeholders will be encouraged through two stakeholder meetings in Alaska and regular communication. Desired outcomes of this 12-month project include determination of where, and when, wildfire vulnerability may change in the future and the effective transfer of research findings to local stakeholders and the scientific community.
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Technical Summary
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Recent research into Alaska’s wildfire regimes identified the ecoregions where a combination of moisture deficit and elevated temperatures are linked to increased wildfire vulnerability (Young et al., 2016). In the Young et al. study, moisture deficit is represented by total precipitation minus total potential evapotranspiration during a given month or year; however, this approach does not reflect the storage of precipitation in snowpack during half the year and the widespread replenishment of soil moisture that occurs in the spring as snow and ice melt. By accounting for the delayed release of winter precipitation as melt water, we will refine estimates of moisture deficit in Alaska. The USGS Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM) is a conceptual hydrologic model used for decades to perform hydrologic research. In recent research funded by the Alaska Climate Science Center, the MWBM was enhanced to simulate glaciers and their contributions to streamflow. Additional enhancements added to the MWBM include improved representations of melt rates, sublimation, the variable permafrost active layer, and surface depressions. We will apply the new MWBM throughout Alaska to refine estimates of moisture deficit and wildfire vulnerability. By improving understanding of climate impacts on fire regimes in Alaska, this proposal directly addresses a high priority research need identified by the Alaska Fire Science Consortium. Close collaboration with Alaska’s five Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC) will ensure alignment of the proposed research with LCC priorities and effective dissemination of results. Long term partnerships with local resource managers, watershed coalitions, and other local stakeholders will be encouraged through two stakeholder meetings in Alaska and regular communication. Desired outcomes of this 12-month project include determination of where, and when, wildfire vulnerability may change in the future and the effective transfer of research findings to local stakeholders and the scientific community.