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  5. Changing Fires, Changing Forests: The Effects of Climate Change on Wildfire Patterns and Forests in the Pacific Northwest

Changing Fires, Changing Forests: The Effects of Climate Change on Wildfire Patterns and Forests in the Pacific Northwest

Changing Wildfire, Changing Forests: A Synthesis on the Effects of Climate Change on Fire Regimes and Vegetation in the Pacific Northwest
Principal Investigator
Brian Harvey

Dates

Start Date
2017-09-05
End Date
2018-03-04
Release Date
2017

Summary

As the dominant force that sets the structure and function of most Pacific Northwest forests, fire is likely to be the major catalyst of forest change in a warming climate. Rising temperatures, decreased snowpack, and earlier snowmelt are expected to lead to longer fire seasons, drier fuel, and an increase in the area burned by wildfires in the future. Forest managers therefore need information on how wildfire patterns and forests will change as the climate warms, in order to guide management activities that can sustain the important ecosystem services that forests provide – including timber production, carbon storage, improved water quality, and recreational opportunities. To address this need, researchers developed a state-of-the [...]

Child Items (3)

Contacts

Principal Investigator :
Brian Harvey
Co-Investigator :
David Peterson, Jessica Halofsky
Funding Agency :
Northwest CSC
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

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Fire_BorealForest_STRupp_AKCSC.jpg
“Boreal forest fire - Credit: Scott Rupp” 		thumbnail 170.79 KB image/jpeg

Purpose

Climate is the key determinant of which forest species grow where and how fast, directly affecting how much fuel is available for wildfires. Climate also affects fuel moisture and the length of the season when fires are likely. In the Pacific Northwest, increased temperatures, decreased snowpack, and earlier snowmelt as the climate warms will likely lead to a longer fire season, lower fuel moisture, higher likelihood of large fires, and greater area burned by wildfire. Changes in wildfire will likely be major drivers of ecosystem change in a warming climate. Facing such changes, forest managers need information on likely changes in wildfire and forests with warming climate to help guide management and sustain ecosystem services, including timber production, carbon storage, recreation, and water quality. To address this information need, we will develop a state-of-science report on potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on forests in the Pacific Northwest. The report will include a synthesis of the highest quality, relevant scientific literature, and interpretation of scientific information. We will provide projections of near-term and long-term effects of changing fire regimes on forests in the region, case studies illustrating recent trends, and recommendations for future research to inform forest management. The report will be written to inform forest managers in their decisions about fire management, post-fire restoration projects, climate adaptation planning, and identification of future risks. To communicate important findings of the report to a broader audience, we will develop a 4-page fact sheet with infographics and highlights from the report and a Story Map with summaries of the report and interactive maps. We will also produce a peer-reviewed journal article based on findings of the technical report.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueAs the dominant force that sets the structure and function of most Pacific Northwest forests, fire is likely to be the major catalyst of forest ecosystem change in a warming climate. To inform their actions, resource managers need information about how climate change will affect fire regimes, and vegetation composition, structure, and function. To address this need, we will develop a state-of-the-science synthesis on potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on forest vegetation in the Pacific Northwest. We will compile all relevant information on potential changes in forest vegetation patterns and fire regimes with changing climate in the region, including long-term paleoecological studies of climate and species distribution, fire history studies, empirical (and field-based) studies on trends in vegetation and fire associated with recent climatic variability and change, impact model projections, and recent syntheses focused on potential climate change effects. All information will be evaluated for scientific integrity and applicability and summarized for six major forest types in the region. The final report will include a synthesis of the highest quality, relevant scientific literature, interpretation of scientific information and projections of near-term and long-term effects of changing fire regimes on forests in the region, demonstration of key trends through illustrative case studies, and recommendations for future research to inform forest management. To disseminate key findings of the report to a general audience, we will develop a fact sheet with highlights from the report and a Story Map with summaries from the report and relevant geospatial information. We will also produce a peer-reviewed journal article based on the findings of the technical report.
projectStatusCompleted

Budget Extension

annualBudgets
year2017
totalFunds98312.79
parts
typeAward Type
valueCooperative Agreement
typeAward Number
valueG17AC00421
totalFunds98312.79

Boreal forest fire - Credit: Scott Rupp
Boreal forest fire - Credit: Scott Rupp

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  • Northwest CASC

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Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC c6e9b444-cb7b-4b3e-90b8-bfdbd6c97527
StampID NCCWSC NW17-HB1274

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