These datasets are part of a suite of products from the Nature’s Network project. Nature’s Network is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conservation in the Northeast, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural areas they inhabit. The data depict the relative resilience or vulnerability of every coastal site to six possible scenarios of sea level rise (1 to 6 feet). Other data from this project are available in the Nature’s Network gallery: https://nalcc.databasin.org/galleries/8f4dfe780c444634a45ee4acc930a055.
Resilience Z-score, Condition Z-score, Physical Z-score and Shoreline units of the Northeast U.S.
We evaluated the coastal region of nine Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states and estimated the resilience of over 10,000 coastal sites. Our aim was to identify the sites most likely to support biological diversity and ecological functions under many levels of sea level rise.
To assess site resilience, we divided the coast into 10,736 individual sites centered around each tidal marsh or complex of tidal habitats. For each site, we estimated the amount of migration space available under six sea-level rise scenarios and we identified the amount of buffer area surrounding the whole tidal complex. We then examined the physical properties and condition characteristics of the site and its features using newly developed analyses as well as previously published and peer- reviewed datasets. For tidal complexes, the physical factors assessed included the size and tidal diversity of the migration space, the size and shoreline intricacy of the existing tidal complex, and the amount of shared edge between the tidal complex and its migration space. Condition factors included the amount of hardened shoreline present in the tidal complex, as well as the magnitude of nitrogen inputs, and the quantity of sediment and freshwater inputs estimated for its migration space. Attributes assessed for the buffer area included its size and variety of compatible landforms and soils, the connectedness of its wetlands and percent natural cover. A score was calculated for each site based 80% on the complex and 20% on the buffer, with equal weight given to physical and condition characteristics. Scores were calculated for each of six sea-level rise scenarios (1 to 6 ft.). Our final maps are based on the 6-foot scenario because this scenario reveals the sites that have the greatest long-term potential for adaptive response. We made the 6-foot results even more robust by evaluating whether the size of the migration space showed a significant increasing or decreasing trend over the last three scenarios and boosting or penalizing the score slightly based on the results.
