Influences of Potential Oil and Gas Development and Future Climate on Sage-Grouse Declines and Redistribution
Dates
Publication Date
2019-04-17
Start Date
2006
End Date
2062
Citation
Heinrichs, J.A., Aldridge, C., O'Donnell, M., Garman, S.L., and Homer, C., 2019, Influences of Potential Oil and Gas Development and Future Climate on Sage-Grouse Declines and Redistribution: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9GRF34E.
Summary
This project represents the data used in “Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on sage-grouse declines and redistribution.” The data sets describe greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population change, summarized in different boundaries within the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI; southwestern Wyoming). Population changes were based on different scenarios of oil and gas development intensities, projected climate models, and initial sage-grouse population estimates. Description of data sets pertaining to this project: Greater sage-grouse population change (percent change) in a high oil and gas development, low population estimate scenario, and with and without effects of climate [...]
Summary
This project represents the data used in “Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on sage-grouse declines and redistribution.”
The data sets describe greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population change, summarized in different boundaries within the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI; southwestern Wyoming). Population changes were based on different scenarios of oil and gas development intensities, projected climate models, and initial sage-grouse population estimates.
Description of data sets pertaining to this project:
Greater sage-grouse population change (percent change) in a high oil and gas development, low population estimate scenario, and with and without effects of climate change.
1. Greater sage-grouse population change (percent change) over 50-years in a high oil and gas development, low population estimate scenario, and with effects of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2050)
2. Greater sage-grouse population change (percent change) in a low oil and gas development, high population estimate scenario, and with no effects of climate change (2006-2062)
3. Greater sage-grouse population change (percent change) over 50-years in a low oil and gas development, low population estimate scenario, and with effects of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2050)
4. Greater sage-grouse population change (percent change) in a moderate oil and gas development, high population estimate scenario, and with no effects of climate change (2006-2062)
5. Greater sage-grouse population change (percent change) in a high oil and gas development, low population estimate scenario, and with no effects of climate change (2006-2062)
The oil and gas development scenario were based on an energy footprint model that simulates well, pad, and road patterns for oil and gas recovery options that vary in well types (vertical and directional) and number of wells per pad and use simulation results to quantify physical and wildlife-habitat impacts. I applied the model to assess tradeoffs among 10 conventional and directional-drilling scenarios in a natural gas field in southwestern Wyoming (see Garman 2017).
The effects climate change on sagebrush were developed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4) climate model and representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario (emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century). The projected climate scenario was used to estimate the change in percent cover of sagebrush (see Homer et al. 2015).
The percent changes in sage-grouse population sizes represented in these data are modeled using an individual-based population model that simulates dynamics of populations by tracking movements of individuals in dynamically changing landscapes, as well as the fates of individuals as influenced by spatially heterogeneous demography.
We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes fifty years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we re-calculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered an important means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. This process and the outcomes on sage-grouse population changes are reflected in this data set.
Garman, S. L. 2018. A Simulation Framework for Assessing Physical and Wildlife Impacts of Oil and Gas Development Scenarios in Southwestern Wyoming. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 23:39–56.
Homer, C. G., G. Xian, C. L. Aldridge, D. K. Meyer, T. R. Loveland, and M. S. O’Donnell. 2015. Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsate imagery to predict the future. Ecological Indicators 55:131–145.
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Related External Resources
Type: Related Primary Publication
Heinrichs, J.A., O’Donnell, M.S., Aldridge, C.L., Garman, S.L., and Homer, C.G., 2019, Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage‐grouse declines and redistribution: Ecological Applications.
The simulated changes in sage-grouse populations presented here can be used to inform management by: 1) understanding the possible range of effects of oil and gas development and future climate influences on sage-grouse habitat, 2) mapping scenarios of how sagebrush vegetation and sage-grouse habitat could change under alternative scenarios, and 3) indicating the degree to which different areas of the landscape could change. These data do not represent absolute predictions, rather they should be interpreted as possible relative differences.
