Data supporting the study of Impacts of Downscaled Climate Model Selection on Projections of Maple Syrup Tapping Season
Dates
Publication Date
2019
Start Date
1895-01-01
End Date
2099-12-31
Citation
Alexander M. Bryan, 2019, Data supporting the study of Impacts of Downscaled Climate Model Selection on Projections of Maple Syrup Tapping Season.
Summary
A final summary figure summarizing the results of a study that compares two different downscaling techniques in terms of how they project future change in various aspects of the maple syrup tapping season. Spatially, the larger project uses raster data covering the full range of sugar maple across the northeastern US, but the summary figure represents point data (as an example) at a sugarbush farm in central Wisconsin. The results show that dynamically downscaled models fail to adequately forecast absolute values of future conditions but do capture potential changes in year-to-year variability — a metric of particular concern to producers as it challenges planning. Statistically downscaled models, while they do adequately capture the [...]
Summary
A final summary figure summarizing the results of a study that compares two different downscaling techniques in terms of how they project future change in various aspects of the maple syrup tapping season. Spatially, the larger project uses raster data covering the full range of sugar maple across the northeastern US, but the summary figure represents point data (as an example) at a sugarbush farm in central Wisconsin. The results show that dynamically downscaled models fail to adequately forecast absolute values of future conditions but do capture potential changes in year-to-year variability — a metric of particular concern to producers as it challenges planning. Statistically downscaled models, while they do adequately capture the absolute range in future conditions (i.e., produce reasonable values, i.e., all positive, as would be expected in a warming climate), they dampen the effects on year-to-year variability. In summary, both downscaling methods have strengths and weaknesses, and both provide useful information to producers. Therefore, complete information requires both downscaling types.
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maple-data-table.csv
413 Bytes
text/csv
maple-syrup-fdgc.xml Original FGDC Metadata
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16.37 KB
application/fgdc+xml
Purpose
Existing downscaled climate model data were used to compare the quality of projections between the two different types of downscaling, providing a sense of the type(s) of information that can be gleaned from the two methods. Information is not meant to be predictive for producers to use in planning for the future; rather, the information is educational about the projections for two audiences: 1) producers to know what types of information can be gleaned from the two methods, raising awareness of the need to and how to be cautious when interpreting studies (most, if not all) that utilize only one method; 2) climate scientists, in general (inside and outside the maple syrup industry), to urge the use of both methods in all future studies that have implications for users, knowing the limitations (and strengths) of each method.
