Recent Warming
This is an initiative to document and understand the science of recent climate warming in the region and implications for natural resources management. SW CASC researchers from Colorado State University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at University of California-San Diego, and University of Arizona, and their partners, are identifying the extent to which temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity affect regional aridification. By improving scientific understanding of the mechanisms of aridification, the team aims to inform water management, irrigated agriculture, and the characterization of drought and wildfire risks.
The team is developing papers on (a) scientific investigation of increasing aridity in the Southwest and (b) assessment of societal impacts and implications for natural resources management. SW CASC investigators and leadership are using Recent Warming to focus consortium collaborations and integrate multiple lines of research toward a common set of outcomes.
California Fire Synthesis
Between 1980 and 2020 California has experienced striking and widely reported increases in mean annual area burned, the destructiveness of wildfires, and the costs of fire suppression. Uncertainties and debates exist amongst both professionals and the public regarding the causes of the increased wildfire risks in California. Public discourse over the causes and remedies for wildfire risks has become highly polarized and politicized. Identification and communication of factors driving wildfire risk, which is inclusive of scientific evidence and expert opinion, is a critical component of meeting the wildfire challenge.
To address this, SW CASC researchers from six consortium institutions, along with SW CASC-funded researchers in the region, are developing a synthesis and assessment on the roles of human-caused climate change and other factors in the increasing trend in wildfire size in California. They also outline some implications for addressing these challenges. Their time has been volunteered to this effort to support the mission of the Climate Adaptation Science Centers “to deliver science to help fish, wildlife, water, land, and people adapt to a changing climate”. The synthesis is expected to be published in Spring 2022.
Southwest Integrated Climate Change Project
SW CASC researchers from the University of Arizona, University of California-Los Angeles, Utah State University, University of California-San Diego, and Colorado State University, aim to conduct and synergize research by the SW CASC on the effects of long-term temperatures trends and short-term temperature extremes on multiple components of ecosystems across the Southwest region. Individual tasks will synthesize the state of scientific knowledge on water availability in the Colorado River Basin, investigate the effects of the annual Southwest monsoon on nearshore marine-layer clouds, evaluate responses of species composition in the rocky intertidal in California to increases in water temperature, and assess how changes in temperature and fire severity affect forest regeneration.
The team will (a) explore links among these tasks, and among the tasks and related SW CASC work on drivers of contemporary warming and aridity in the southwestern United States, (b) consider how different taxonomic groups or species may respond to directional changes or variability in temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, solar radiation, and wind, and (c) examine the linkages among inland variations in summer climate, their effects on regional vegetation and fire dynamics, and attributes of marine heat waves that can affect kelp forests and coastal and near-shore ecosystems. In addition, the project team will explore the application of wikis to communication of science. This mechanism is highly appealing to the Southwest water resource management community, and the team will examine its potential value to other natural resource management sectors.
Throughout the project, the team will engage partners to assess existing data, implement novel field experiments, exchange knowledge with stakeholders, and translate scientific results. In doing so, the team will strengthen relationships among researchers and natural resource managers in California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and Colorado. This ongoing engagement with partners will expand our understanding of the questions and needs of SW CASC stakeholders, and improve connections among existing and emergent SW CASC, national CASC network, and USGS multidisciplinary research priorities.
