Characterizing projected future (2056-95) droughts in south Florida based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaled climate dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

Dates

Publication Date: 2024-07-16
Start Date: 1950
End Date: 2099

Citation

Irizarry-Ortiz, M.M., 2024, Characterizing projected future (2056-95) droughts in south Florida based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaled climate dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P14RO4HF.

Summary

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have evaluated projections of future (2056-95) droughts for south Florida based on climate model output from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaled climate dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The emission scenarios evaluated include representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from CMIP5. The analysis was performed for four regions in the SFWMD: (1) the entire SFWMD, (2) the Lower West Coast (LWC) water supply region, (3) the Lower East Coast (LEC) water supply region, and (4) the Okeechobee plus (OKEE+) water supply meta-region consisting of Lake Okeechobee (OKEE), the Lower [...]

Summary

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have evaluated projections of future (2056-95) droughts for south Florida based on climate model output from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaled climate dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The emission scenarios evaluated include representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from CMIP5. The analysis was performed for four regions in the SFWMD: (1) the entire SFWMD, (2) the Lower West Coast (LWC) water supply region, (3) the Lower East Coast (LEC) water supply region, and (4) the Okeechobee plus (OKEE+) water supply meta-region consisting of Lake Okeechobee (OKEE), the Lower Kissimmee (LKISS), Upper Kissimmee (UKISS), and Upper East Coast (UEC) water supply regions in the SFWMD.

This data release consists of ten figures in Portable Document Format (PDF):

Map of the study area and four analysis regions (Figure_study_area_map.pdf).
Scatterplots of the joint distributions of historical (1950-2005) and future (2056-95) drought-event characteristics (duration and intensity) based on 6-mo. and 12-mo. averaged balance anomaly timeseries derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method for the four regions assuming (1) historical-standard stomatal resistance (rs) (Drought_event_joint_distributions_historical_standard_rs.pdf), and (2) the Kruijt rs curve in the future (Drought_event_joint_distributions_Kruijt.pdf).
Scatterplots of the joint distributions of historical (1950-2005) drought-event characteristics (duration and intensity) based on 6-mo. and 12-mo. averaged balance anomaly timeseries derived from the SFWMD Super-grid datasets for the four regions (Drought_event_joint_distributions_SFWMD_supergrid.pdf).
Boxplots of future overall drought-event characteristics based on 6-mo. and 12-mo. averaged balance anomaly timeseries derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method for the four regions assuming (1) historical-standard stomatal resistance (Overall_drought_characteristics_boxplots_historical_standard_rs.pdf), and (2) the Kruijt rs curve in the future (Overall_drought_characteristics_boxplots_Kruijt.pdf).
Boxplots of percentage change in overall drought-event characteristics based on 6-mo. and 12-mo. averaged balance anomaly timeseries derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method for the four regions assuming (1) historical-standard stomatal resistance (Overall_drought_characteristics_percdiff_boxplots_historical_standard_rs.pdf), and (2) the Kruijt rs curve in the future (Overall_drought_characteristics_percdiff_boxplots_Kruijt.pdf).
Hierarchical clustering summary plots showing model drought evaluation statistics based on drought characteristics derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method for the four regions assuming (1) historical-standard stomatal resistance (Hierarchical_clustering_historical_standard_rs.pdf), and (2) the Kruijt rs curve in the future (Hierarchical_clustering_Kruijt.pdf).

This data release also includes 11 tables in EXCEL spreadsheet format:

Information about general circulation models (GCM) downscaled by the MACA method (Model_information.xlsx).
Monthly historical climate anomaly timeseries and standardized drought indices derived from the SFWMD Super-grid datasets for the four regions (Anomaly_timeseries_SFWMD_supergrid.xlsx).
The ratio of future to historical-standard stomatal resistance based on the Kruijt CO2 vs. stomatal resistance curve and global-average CO2 concentrations projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2006-2100 (Stomatal_resistance_ratio_curves.xlsx).
Monthly climate anomaly timeseries derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method for the four regions assuming (1) historical-standard stomatal resistance (Anomaly_timeseries_historical_standard_rs.xlsx), and (2) the Kruijt rs curve in the future (Anomaly_timeseries_Kruijt.xlsx).
Mean future (2056-95) anomalies derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method for the four regions assuming (1) historical-standard stomatal resistance (Mean_future_anomalies_historical_standard_rs.xlsx), and (2) the Kruijt rs curve in the future (Mean_future_anomalies_Kruijt.xlsx).
Overall drought-event characteristics based on 6-mo. and 12-mo. averaged balance anomaly timeseries derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method for the four regions assuming (1) historical-standard stomatal resistance (Overall_drought_characteristics_historical_standard_rs.xlsx), and (2) the Kruijt rs curve in the future (Overall_drought_characteristics_Kruijt.xlsx).
Model drought evaluation statistics based on drought characteristics derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method for the four regions assuming (1) historical-standard stomatal resistance (Model_drought_evaluation_historical_standard_rs.xlsx), and (2) the Kruijt rs curve in the future (Model_drought_evaluation_Kruijt.xlsx).

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Contacts

Point of Contact :: Michelle M Irizarry-Ortiz
Originator :: Michelle M Irizarry-Ortiz
Metadata Contact :: Michelle M Irizarry-Ortiz
Publisher :: U.S. Geological Survey
SDC Data Owner :: Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center
USGS Mission Area :: Water Resources
Distributor :: U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase

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Figure_study_area_map.png “Map of the study area and four analysis regions”		481.72 KB	image/png
Landingpage_Drought.xml “Landingpage_Drought.xml” Original FGDC Metadata	View	13.09 KB	application/fgdc+xml

Purpose

The primary purpose of this data release is to provide water-resource managers and water agencies with information on future drought projections for south Florida. This project is a cooperative effort between the USGS and the SFWMD.

Characterizing projected future (2056-95) droughts in south Florida based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaled climate dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

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