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Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project used a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations illustrates...
Abstract (from PLoS ONE): To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as the uncertainty inherent in those projections. Vegetation models are one important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest. We compare model results for vegetation cover and carbon dynamics over the period 1895–2100 assuming: 1) unlimited wildfire ignitions versus stochastic ignitions, 2) no fire, and 3) a moderate CO2 fertilization effect versus no CO2fertilization effect. Carbon stocks decline in all scenarios,...
Land managers in the Great Basin are working to maintain or restore sagebrush ecosystems as climate change exacerbates existing threats. Web applications delivering climate change and climate impacts information have the potential to assist their efforts. Although many web applications containing climate information currently exist, few have been co-produced with land managers or have incorporated information specifically focused on land managers’ needs. Through surveys and interviews, we gathered detailed feedback from federal, state, and tribal sagebrush land managers in the Great Basin on climate information web applications targeting land management. We found that a) managers are searching for weather and climate...
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FY2015The Northwestern Great Basin ecoregion is one of the most intact ecosystems in the west. It is also a biological hotspot for migratory birds, greater sage-grouse and a stronghold for pronghorn antelope. However, altered fire regimes, invasive species, water scarcity, development, and climate change threaten the integrity of this landscape. Several efforts are ongoing for individual species, specific threats or sub-geographies, and over 60 existing plans and assessments have been identified for the region. This project will pull the pieces together to create a holistic view of shared priorities on the landscape.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Alford Desert, Alford Desert, Alford Desert, Alford Desert, Applications and Tools, All tags...
Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) projections are often put forth to aid resource managers in climate change-related decision making. However, interpreting model results and understanding their uncertainty can be difficult. Sources of uncertainty include embedded assumptions about atmospheric CO2 levels, uncertain climate projections driving DGVMs, and DGVM algorithm selection. For western Oregon and Washington, we implemented an Environmental Evaluation Modeling System (EEMS) decision support model using MC2 DGVM results to characterize biomass loss risk. MC2 results were driven by climate projections from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs), under Representative Concentration...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) has been developing web applications to centralize and serve credible and usable information that allows natural resource managers, as well as the general public, to better understand the challenges posed by on-going environmental change. In particular CBI has designed a series of climate consoles that provide natural resource managers the most recent 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP5) climate projections, landscape intactness, and soil sensitivity for a series of reporting units over the western United States. The publically available web sites were refined based on feedback from a variety of users. In this paper, we describe each of the tools developed as open-source...
The MC2 model projects an overall increase in carbon capture in conterminous United States during the 21st century while also simulating a rise in fire causing much carbon loss. Carbon sequestration in soils is critical to prevent carbon losses from future disturbances, and we show that natural ecosystems store more carbon belowground than managed systems do. Natural and human-caused disturbances affect soil processes that shape ecosystem recovery and competitive interactions between native, exotics, and climate refugees. Tomorrow's carbon budgets will depend on how land use, natural disturbances, and climate variability will interact and affect the balance between carbon capture and release.
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119011705.ch10/summary): This chapter discusses an approach that uses MC1 results to create climate-informed state-and-transition simulation model (cSTSMs) in two contrasting landscapes: dry forests in central Oregon and wet forests in western Washington. The studies presented here examine trends in different socioecological values under different climate and management assumptions using a dynamic global vegetation model/STSM approach. The authors found that simulated management actions did not prevent climate-induced vegetation change. Simulated management did in some cases promote desired forest structures and increase resilience to climate change....
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This data set contains output from the dynamic vegetation model MC1, as modified to simulate future woody encroachment in the northern Great Plains, for 23 monthly variables, 63 yearly variables, and 31 multi-year variables. Variables include simulated plant (by growth form) and soil carbon stocks, net primary production, vegetation type, potential and actual evapotranspiration, stream flow, and fuel mass and moisture. Model output is provided for the EQ, Spinup, Historical, and Future stages of MC1 runs; future stages were run for four climate projections crossed with 10 or 11 fire X grazing X CO2 concentration scenarios for the western and eastern portions of the study area, respectively.
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A change in wildfire regimes and the expansion of invasive grasses are degrading sagebrush ecosystems, altering wildlife habitats, and threatening property and human livelihoods. In response, land managers often treat large areas of land with fuel reduction or post-fire seeding treatments in an attempt to reduce these risks. However, the trajectories of ecosystem change following treatment are inconsistent across the sagebrush steppe. In some places, treatments are successful, leading to a decrease in invasive grasses which allows native plants to recover. In other places, treatments either have no effect or they facilitate the spread of invasive grasses. Under some climate conditions, native grasses and forbs do...
On June 27, 2016, speakers Dominique Bachelet, Conservation Biology Institute, and Dave Hopper, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, discussed the need for reliable, usable tools and data sources to meet climate change-related land management challenges. The combination of projected climate change and land use adds uncertainty to the long-term effectiveness of current management strategies. Managers need reliable information to adjust their strategies as population density increases. However they are currently overwhelmed by the diversity of available information and the multiplicity of sources. The Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) has been working to centralize and package the usable information for land managers...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015003865): Climate change adaptation and mitigation require understanding of vegetation response to climate change. Using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we simulate vegetation for the Northwest United States using results from 20 different Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled using the MACA algorithm. Results were generated for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 under vegetation modeling scenarios with and without fire suppression for a total of 80 model runs for future projections. For analysis, results were aggregated by three subregions: the Western Northwest (WNW),...
This data set contains output from the dynamic vegetation model MC1, as modified to simulate future woody encroachment in the northern Great Plains. Simulations were done for the historical period (1895-2005) and the future period (2006-2100). Separate simulations were done for eastern and western portions of the region, with the eastern simulations using model parameters appropriate for Juniperus virginiana as the major evergreen needle-leaf life form, and the western simulations using model parameters appropriate for Pinus ponderosa as the major evergreen needle-leaf life form. Simulations in each portion were run for two A2 emissions scenario climate projections (CSIRO, representing moderate temperature increases...
These are web links to a folder in Data Basin, containing simulations of future vegetation types. From the description in Data Basin: "The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 was run for the North American continent using historical and future climate projections to simulate vegetation shifts, carbon gains and losses, hydrological flows, and wildfires. This work has not been published yet and should be considered as not peer reviewed. Note that we have added a file as an attachment to this gallery to provide the list of vegetation types that are simulated by the vegetation model and the category number that is associated with each type. When using the identify tool this will be useful to match number and name...
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The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 simulates plant growth and biogeochemical cycles, vegetation type, wildfire, and their interactions. The model simulates competition between trees and grasses (including other herbaceous species), as affected by differential access to light and water, and fire-caused tree mortality (Bachelet et al., 2000; 2001). MC1 projects the dynamics of lifeforms, including evergreen and deciduous needleleaf and broadleaf trees, as well as C3 and C4 grasses. However, the model can also be parameterized for a particular dominant species of the associated lifeform. For this project we used two versions of MC1, both of which modified the standard code to improve the simulation of potential...
The Nature’s Stage Climate Mapper allows users to explore the geoclimatic stability of HUC5 watersheds within the Pacific Northwest.Geoclimatic Stability, as defined here, is a measure of a natural system’s capacity to remain stable as the climate changes over time. This is based on two factors: * Climate Departure: a measure of how different the future climate is projected to be from the historical climate. * Climate Resilience: a measure of how resilient an area is expected to be to changes in climate (based on topoclimate diversity and landscape permeability).A watershed with lower levels of climate departure and higher levels of climate resilience is more likely to sustain current levels of native biodiversity...
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Projected change from historical (1950-2005) in several hydrometerological variables under three Global Circulation Models for two time periods (2050s and 2080s) under RCP 8.5. This metadata record documents multiple individual datasets, specifically the change from historical (1950-2005) for 12 hydrometerological variables projected by 3 Global Circulation Models (GCM) over 2 future time periods, for one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) The variables are: Water Deficit, Spring (March-May) Water Deficit, Summer (July-September) Potential Evapotranspiration, Spring (March-May) Potential Evapotranspiration, Summer (July-September) Total Runoff, Summer (June-August) Total Runoff, Spring (March-May)...
map background search result map search result map Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Output from MC1 Model Modified to Simulate Future Woody Encroachment in the Northern Great Plains MC1 Code Modified to Simulate Future Woody Encroachment in the Northern Great Plains Northwest Basin and Range Synthesis Project Integrated scenarios of the future Northwest U.S. environment: hydrometerological projections for 2050s and 2080s, CMIP5 models, RCP 8.5 Trajectories of Change: How Climate, Wildfire, and Management Drive Shrubland Ecosystem Transitions Northwest Basin and Range Synthesis Project Integrated scenarios of the future Northwest U.S. environment: hydrometerological projections for 2050s and 2080s, CMIP5 models, RCP 8.5 Output from MC1 Model Modified to Simulate Future Woody Encroachment in the Northern Great Plains MC1 Code Modified to Simulate Future Woody Encroachment in the Northern Great Plains Trajectories of Change: How Climate, Wildfire, and Management Drive Shrubland Ecosystem Transitions Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions