Filters: Contacts: Joshua J. Lawler (X)
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Mammals,
Northwest CASC,
Other Wildlife,
This report summarizes the results from a climate change adaptation workshop focused on the Columbia Plateau landscape in eastern Washington and parts of Idaho and Oregon. The objective of the workshop was to collaborate with landscape managers to apply results from the Pacific Northwest climate change vulnerability assessment (PNWCCVA) to on-the-ground ecological management objectives. Specifically, we sought to address the following questions: How can model results and datasets be applied to assist with management decisions? How can model results and datasets be made more useful for informing species and landscape management?To this end, we presented information and data developed as part of the PNWCCVA to workshop...
Climate Change Sensitivity Database Website
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1608-2): Many recent changes in tree species distributions, mortality, and growth rates have been linked to changes in climate. Managing forests in the face of climate change will require a basic understanding of which tree species will be most vulnerable to climate change and in what ways they will be vulnerable. We assessed the relative vulnerability to climate change of 11 tree species in western North America using a multivariate approach to quantify elements of sensitivity to climate change, exposure to climate change, and the capacity to adapt to climate change. Our assessment was based on a combination of expert knowledge, published studies,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Mammals,
Northwest CASC,
Other Wildlife,
Abstract (from http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2699.html): Contemporary climate change is causing large shifts in biotic distributions1, which has the potential to bring previously isolated, closely related species into contact2. This has led to concern that hybridization and competition could threaten species persistence3. Here, we use bioclimatic models to show that future range overlap by the end of the century is predicted for only 6.4% of isolated, congeneric species pairs of New World birds, mammals and amphibians. Projected rates of climate-induced overlap are higher for birds (11.6%) than for mammals (4.4%) or amphibians (3.6%). As many species will have difficulty tracking shifting...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Landscapes,
Northwest CASC,
Other Landscapes,
Science Tools For Managers
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12505/abstract): Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation-planning process. By doing so, it may be possible...
This report summarizes the results from a climate change adaptation workshop focused on the Columbia Plateau landscape in eastern Washington and parts of Idaho and Oregon. The objective of the workshop was to collaborate with landscape managers to apply results from the Pacific Northwest climate change vulnerability assessment (PNWCCVA) to on-the-ground ecological management objectives. Specifically, we sought to address the following questions: 1) How can model results and datasets be applied to assist with management decisions? 2) How can model results and datasets be made more useful for informing species and landscape management?Report prepared for the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative by Julia...
PIONEER MOUNTAINS ― CRATERS OF THE MOON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION WORKSHOP REPORT Prepared for the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative by: John C. Withey, Julia L. Michalak, Joshua J. Lawler, and Michael J. Case School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington, Seattle, WA March 2014
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0136385): Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Northwest,
Northwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Wetlands,
amphibians,
Abstract (from Wiley Online Library): As evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present‐day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modern climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified these locations by tracking projected changes in the size and distribution of climate analogs over time. We used biologically derived thresholds to define analogs and tested the impacts of dispersal limitation with 4 distances to limit analog searches. We identified at most 12% of North America as potential climatic refugia. Refugia extent...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Landscapes,
Landscapes,
The central objective of this project was to answer two questions: 1) how downscaled climate datasets, modeled vegetation changes, and information on estimated species sensitivities can be used to develop climate change adaptation strategies, and 2) how model results and datasets can be made more useful for informing the management of species and landscapes. To answer these questions, we identified enthusiastic partners working in two very different complex landscapes within the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GNLCC): the Columbia Plateau of Washington, Oregon and Idaho, and the Pioneer Mountains - Craters of the Moon (central Idaho). The issues and concerns of each group were very different both...
Modern climate change has already begun to alter ecological and human systems. Many of the changes projected for the coming century will necessitate management responses if we wish to maintain functioning ecosystems, protect rare species, and derive needed ecosystem services. Prioritizing management actions in the face of climate change and developing adaptation strategies requires an understanding of how climates will change and which species and systems will be most vulnerable to those changes. We are currently undertaking a climate change culnerability assessment for the Pacific Northwestern US. This assessment involves: developing on-line databases that document species and system sensitivities to climate change...
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