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Climate data (NCEP: Average Annual Temperature, 1968-1999) have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET web site (http://users.ictp.it/RegCNET/model.html), and the ICTP RegCM publications...
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This dataset depicts the Difference for Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep for 2045-2060 compared to 1968-1999 for GFDL. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET...
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Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project used a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations illustrates...
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This dataset depicts the Difference for Total Average Annual Precipitation for 2015-2030 and 2045-2060 compared to 1968-1999 for GENMOM. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007),...
Abstract (from PLoS ONE): To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as the uncertainty inherent in those projections. Vegetation models are one important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest. We compare model results for vegetation cover and carbon dynamics over the period 1895–2100 assuming: 1) unlimited wildfire ignitions versus stochastic ignitions, 2) no fire, and 3) a moderate CO2 fertilization effect versus no CO2fertilization effect. Carbon stocks decline in all scenarios,...
Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) has been developing web applications to centralize and serve credible and usable information that allows natural resource managers, as well as the general public, to better understand the challenges posed by on-going environmental change. In particular CBI has designed a series of climate consoles that provide natural resource managers the most recent 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP5) climate projections, landscape intactness, and soil sensitivity for a series of reporting units over the western United States. The publically available web sites were refined based on feedback from a variety of users. In this paper, we describe each of the tools developed as open-source...
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This dataset depicts the Difference of Winter Precipitation for 2045-2060 compared to 1968-1999 for GFDL. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET web site (http://users.ictp.it/RegCNET/model.html),...
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Climate data (Average Seasonal Precipitation for Jan-Mar for 1968-1999) were created by PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Indepenent Slopes Model - prism.oregonstate.edu) on a 2.5 arc-minute lat-lon grid. They are based on historical observations from 1968-1999. We created mean monthly climatologies for that period from the PRISM data, and reprojected the results to the BLM Albers 4km grid. We used these results as a historical baseline climate to de-bias RegCM3 projections. We also compiled annual and seasonal summaries of precipitation and temperature from the PRISM data to allow for simple comparisons with other climatologies.
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Climate data (Average Annual Total Precipitation for 1968-1999) were created by PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Indepenent Slopes Model - prism.oregonstate.edu) on a 2.5 arc-minute lat-lon grid. They are based on historical observations from 1968-1999. We created mean monthly climatologies for that period from the PRISM data, and reprojected the results to the BLM Albers 4km grid. We used these results as a historical baseline climate to de-bias RegCM3 projections. We also compiled annual and seasonal summaries of precipitation and temperature from the PRISM data to allow for simple comparisons with other climatologies.
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015003865): Climate change adaptation and mitigation require understanding of vegetation response to climate change. Using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we simulate vegetation for the Northwest United States using results from 20 different Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled using the MACA algorithm. Results were generated for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 under vegetation modeling scenarios with and without fire suppression for a total of 80 model runs for future projections. For analysis, results were aggregated by three subregions: the Western Northwest (WNW),...
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This dataset depicts the Difference for Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep for 2045-2060 compared to 1968-1999 for ECHAM5. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET...
Globally, ecosystemsare subjected toprolonged droughts and extremeheat events, leading to forest die-offs and dominance shifts in vegetation. Some scientists and managers view soil as the main resource to be considered in monitoring ecosystem responses to aridification. As the mediumthroughwhich precipitation is received, stored, and redistributed for plant use, soil is an important factor in the sensitivity of ecosystems to a drying climate. This study presents a novel approach to evaluating where on a landscape soils may be most sensitive to drying, making them less resilient to disturbance, and where potential future vegetation changes could lead to such disturbance. The drying and devegetation of arid lands...
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This dataset depicts the anomaly for Average Annual Total Precipitation for 2045-2060 compared to 1968-1999 for ECHAM5. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET...
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This dataset depicts the anomaly for Average Seasonal Precipitation for Jan-Mar for 2015-2030 compared to 1968-1999 for ECHAM5. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP...
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Climate data (Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep for 1968-1999) were created by PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Indepenent Slopes Model - prism.oregonstate.edu) on a 2.5 arc-minute lat-lon grid. They are based on historical observations from 1968-1999. We created mean monthly climatologies for that period from the PRISM data, and reprojected the results to the BLM Albers 4km grid. We used these results as a historical baseline climate to de-bias RegCM3 projections. We also compiled annual and seasonal summaries of precipitation and temperature from the PRISM data to allow for simple comparisons with other climatologies.
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This dataset depicts the anomaly for Winter Precipitation for 2045-2060 compared to 1968-1999 for GENMOM. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET web site (http://users.ictp.it/RegCNET/model.html),...
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In the Pacific Northwest, temperatures are projected to increase 2-15°F by 2100. Winters are expected to become wetter and summers could become drier. Snowpack will likely decrease substantially, and snowmelt runoff may occur earlier in the year. Wildfires are projected to become more frequent and severe, and forest types are expected to change from maritime evergreen to subtropical mixed-woodlands. Because the impacts of climate change vary from place to place, regionally-specific climate projections are critical to help farmers, foresters, city planners, public utility providers, and fish and wildlife managers plan for how to best manage resources. However, the models that are used to project changes in climate...
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FY2015Researchers conducted interviews with sagebrush land managers from Oregon, Idaho and Utah to identify the most relevant variables, threats and management strategies relevant to their specific sagebrush management areas. Managers were also asked to assess a series of web-based climate tools, providing feedback about what features of the tools were most intuitive, interesting and useful, or complicated, unnecessary, and in need of revision. Results from the first phase of the project suggested several directions to improve existing climate tools.
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This dataset depicts the Difference of Average Annual Average Precipitation for 2045-2060 compared to 1968-1999 for GFDL. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140196315300677): Climate change has already affected southern California where regional increases in temperature and vegetation shifts have been observed. While all the CMIP5 temperature projections agree on a substantial level of warming throughout the year, there is fair bit of divergence in the magnitude and seasonality of projected changes in rainfall. While desert plants and animals are generally adapted to extreme conditions, some species may be approaching their physiological threshold. We calculated the climate velocity of both temperature and aridity (PPT/PET) in SE California to illustrate the spatial variability of climate projections...
map background search result map search result map Projecting Future Climate, Vegetation, and Hydrology in the Pacific Northwest Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions 4KM PRISM: Average Annual Total Precipitation (1968-1999) from PRISM (Western US) Average Annual Total Precipitation 2015-2060 from ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 climate model 4KM Original: Average Summer Temperature (1968-1999) from NCEP-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM PRISM: Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep (1968-1999) from PRISM (Western US) Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep 2015-2060 from ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 climate model 4KM Difference: Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep (2045-2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM PRISM: Average Winter Precipitation for Jan-Mar (1968-1999) from PRISM (Western US) 4KM Difference: Total Average Annual Precipitation (2015-2060) from GENMOM-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Total Average Annual Precipitation (2045-2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Winter Precipitation (2015-2060) from ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Winter Precipitation (2015-2060) from GENMOM-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Winter Precipitation (2045-2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) Developing Usable Climate Tools for Land Managers Developing Usable Climate Tools for Land Managers Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Projecting Future Climate, Vegetation, and Hydrology in the Pacific Northwest 4KM PRISM: Average Annual Total Precipitation (1968-1999) from PRISM (Western US) Average Annual Total Precipitation 2015-2060 from ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 climate model 4KM Original: Average Summer Temperature (1968-1999) from NCEP-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM PRISM: Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep (1968-1999) from PRISM (Western US) Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep 2015-2060 from ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 climate model 4KM Difference: Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep (2045-2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM PRISM: Average Winter Precipitation for Jan-Mar (1968-1999) from PRISM (Western US) 4KM Difference: Total Average Annual Precipitation (2015-2060) from GENMOM-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Total Average Annual Precipitation (2045-2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Winter Precipitation (2015-2060) from ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Winter Precipitation (2015-2060) from GENMOM-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Winter Precipitation (2045-2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US)