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Maps included are the following for the entire Bay Delta and Suisun, North Bay, Central Bay, and South Bay: 2010 elevations from LiDAR 2030: Sed Low/SLR low, Sed Low/SLR high, Sed high/ SLR low, Sed high/ SLR high 2050: Sed Low/SLR low, Sed Low/SLR high, Sed high/ SLR low, Sed high/ SLR high 2110: Sed Low/SLR low, Sed Low/SLR high, Sed high/ SLR low, Sed high/ SLR high Also included are histograms showing area covered by marsh habitat types for the four sea-level rise/sediment scenarios, for the Bay Delta and subregions.
Sediment and levee data were generated and added to the SLR tool. We decided to measure sediment because there was no viable data. The estimated data used in the tool is the best there is, and there was field data collected to validate it. Available in the Stralberg paper in a table, and zip of shapefiles also attached here.
An online decision support tool for managers, planners, conservation practitioners and scientists.The models generating these maps are the first to take into account the ability of marshes to accrete, or keep up with, rising sea levels, in the San Francisco Bay Estuary.PRBO has generated a series of scenarios to provide a range of projections to address the uncertainty in future rates of sea-level rise and suspended sediment availability.Our maps cover the entire Estuary allowing for analyses at multiple spatial scales.This tool displays maps created at a high spatial resolution using the best available elevation data. The website will be continually updated as new data becomes availableThe tool is the first to...
The main goal of this project is to ensure that the 2011-13 climate change update to the Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Report (Baylands Goals) and other key, ongoing conservation activities in the San Francisco Bay region use the latest information about the current and future status of San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems, particularly in the context of sea-level rise. The main product of the project is the improved Sea Level Rise (SLR) Tool, specifically upgraded to inform the Baylands Goals Report update. The tool will continue to be available online at www.prbo.org/sfbayslr. All data layers going into the tool are and will continue to be downloadable from the site.
The large uncertainty surrounding the future effects of sea-level rise and other aspects of climate change on tidal marsh ecosystems exacerbates the difficulty in planning effective conservation and restoration actions. We addressed these difficulties in the context of large-scale wetland restoration activities underway in the San Francisco Estuary (Suisun, San Pablo and San Francisco Bays). We used a boosted regression tree approach to project the future distribution and abundance of five marsh bird species (through 2110) in response to changes in habitat availability and suitability as a result of projected sea-level rise, salinity, and sediment availability in the Estuary. To bracket the uncertainty, we considered...
Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities.Building upon established models, we developed a hybrid approach that involves a mechanistic treatment of marsh accretion dynamics and incorporates spatial variation at a scale relevant for conservation and restoration decision-making. We applied this model to San Francisco Bay, using best-available elevation data and estimates of sediment supply and organic matter accumulation developed for 15 Bay subregions. Accretion models...
This technical report presents PRBO Conservation Science’s (now called Point Blue Conservation Science) development of scenarios of climate change impacts on tidal marsh vegetation and bird species from 2010-2110 based on low or high rates of sea level rise (0.52 or 1.65 m in 100 yr) and low or high suspended sediment availability.
Contributions to all chapters of the BEHGU, in particular the Ocean-Wetland Transition Zone, Conceptual Model of the Bay, Chair of the Wildlife Working Group. Also on the Habitat Evolution Work Group, and the Steering Committee. Writing the summary and recommendations.