Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand

Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0174045): Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models’ expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM,...

Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Drought, Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, North Central CASC

A Framework for Developing the Next Generation Interactive Soil Moisture Forecasting System Using the Long-Short Term Memory Model

Soil moisture is crucial for agriculture and hydrology, but its accurate prediction is challenging due to inadequate representation of various complex land surface processes and meteorological influences. In this research, we employ the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) framework, a specific architecture of deep learning networks that is effective in processing time series data, for predicting soil moisture. We have developed the Next Generation Interactive Soil Moisture Forecasting System to advance skillful soil moisture predictions at sub-seasonal timescales by leveraging advanced analytics and deep learning, with LSTM at its core. We combined the state-of-the-art climate model's (Community Earth System Model Version...

Categories: Publication; Types: Citation