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In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project will continue ongoing efforts to identify and address climate science challenges related to drought, climate extremes, and the water cycle that are important for natural resource managers and scientists in the North Central region, to support adaptation planning. To accomplish this goal, researchers sought to (1) provide data and synthesis on drought processes in the region and on how evaporative stress on ecosystems will change during...
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This shapefile represents the spatial distribution of mean annual groundwater recharge, in inches, for Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi for a set of drought and land-cover conditions represented in six water-budget scenarios. The six scenarios include: (1) historical drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, (2) future drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, (3) historical drought rainfall and Conversion 1 land cover, (4) future drought rainfall and Conversion 1 land cover, (5) historical drought rainfall and Conversion 2 land cover, and (6) future drought rainfall and Conversion 2 land cover. Historical drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1998–2002 from Frazier and others (2016), whereas future drought rainfall is monthly rainfall...
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Preparing for and responding to drought requires integrating scientific information into complex decision making processes. In recognition of this challenge, regional drought early warning systems (DEWS) and related drought-information tools have been developed under the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). Despite the existence of many tools and information sources, however, the factors that influence if a tool(s) is (are) used, which tools are used, and how much benefit those tools provide remain poorly understood. Using the Upper Colorado River DEWS as a case study, this study investigated how water, land, and fire managers select from among many available tools. The Upper Colorado River Basin...
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This shapefile represents the spatial distribution of mean annual groundwater recharge, in inches, for Molokaʻi, Hawaii for two water-budget scenarios. The two scenarios include: (1) historical drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, and (2) future drought rainfall and 2020 land cover. Historical drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1998–2002 from Frazier and others (2016), whereas future drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1998–2002 rainfall adjusted for a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 2071-99 (RCP8.5 2071–99) projection from Elison Timm and others (2015). Monthly rainfall for each scenario was disaggregated into daily values using daily rainfall during 1998–2002 from Longman and others...
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This shapefile represents the spatial distribution of mean annual groundwater recharge, in inches, for Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi for two water-budget scenarios. The two scenarios include: (1) historical drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, and (2) future drought rainfall and 2020 land cover. Historical drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1998–2002 from Frazier and others (2016), whereas future drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1998–2002 rainfall adjusted for a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 2071-99 (RCP8.5 2071–99) projection from Elison Timm and others (2015). Monthly rainfall for each scenario was disaggregated into daily values using daily rainfall during 1998–2002 from Longman and others (2019)....
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This shapefile represents the frequency characteristics of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi for four water-budget scenarios. The four scenarios include (1) historical non-drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, (2) historical drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, (3) future non-drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, and (4) future drought rainfall and 2020 land cover. Historical non-drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1990–97 and 2003–06 from Frazier and others (2016). Historical drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1998–2002 and 2007–12 from Frazier and others (2016). Future non-drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1990–97 and 2003–06 from Frazier...
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Drought and wildfire pose enormous threats to the integrity of natural resources that land managers are charged with protecting. Recent observations and modeling forecasts indicate that these stressors will likely produce catastrophic ecosystem transformations, or abrupt changes in the condition of plants, wildlife, and their habitats, in regions across the country in coming decades. In this project, researchers will bring together land managers who have experienced various degrees of ecosystem transformation (from not yet experiencing any changes to seeing large changes across the lands they manage) to share their perspectives on how to mitigate large-scale changes in land condition. The team will conduct surveys...
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Documented in this data release are data used to model and map the probability of arsenic being greater than 10 micrograms per liter in private domestic wells throughout the conterminous United States during drought conditions (Lombard and others, 2020). The model used to predict the probability of arsenic exceeding 10 micrograms per liter in private domestic wells was previously developed and documented by Ayotte and others (2017). Independent variables in the model include groundwater recharge and annual precipitation. In order to assess the impact of drought these variables were altered to simulate drought by reducing the 30-year average annual values by 25 and 50 percent. The impact of drought was also assessed...
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Forests are of tremendous ecological and economic importance. They provide natural places for recreation, clean drinking water, and important habitats for fish and wildlife. However, the warmer temperatures and harsher droughts in the west that are related to climate change are causing die-offs of many trees. Outbreaks of insects, like the mountain pine beetle, that kill trees are also more likely in warmer, drier conditions. To maintain healthy and functioning forest ecosystems, one action forest managers can take is to make management decisions that will help forests adapt to future climate change. However, adaptation is a process based on genetic change and few tools are currently available for managers to use...
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This data release includes data-processing scripts, data products, and associated metadata for a remote-sensing based approach to characterize vegetation sensitivity to droughts from 2000 through 2016 in the U.S. states of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Drought sensitivity analysis was conducted in minimally-disturbed (‘intact’) forest and shrub-steppe ecosystems, defined as 1-km pixels (i.e., grid cells) that had not experienced major recent insect mortality or fire. Drought conditions were assessed using the multi-scalar standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), for which positive values indicate wetter that average conditions and negative values indicate drier than average conditions for a given...
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This shapefile represents the frequency characteristics of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi for four water-budget scenarios. The four scenarios include (1) historical non-drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, (2) historical drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, (3) future non-drought rainfall and 2020 land cover, and (4) future drought rainfall and 2020 land cover. Historical non-drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1990–97 and 2003–06 from Frazier and others (2016). Historical drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1998–2002 and 2007–12 from Frazier and others (2016). Future non-drought rainfall is monthly rainfall during 1990–97 and 2003–06 from Frazier...
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Hydrologic drought and declining water availability are among the foremost stressors of stream ecosystems in the Red River basin. Resource managers face the challenge of apportioning scarce water resources among competing uses, but they lack a systematic framework for comparing the costs and benefits of proposed water management decisions and conservation actions. In 2016, Co-PIs Neeson and Moreno were funded by the Great Plains LCC to develop a decision support model for identifying the most cost-effective water conservation alternatives across the Red River basin. Here, we propose to extend this optimization model in three significant ways to support cost-effective conservation decisions in the face of climate...
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Unprecedented rates of climate warming over the past century have resulted in increased forest stress and mortality worldwide. Decreased tree growth in association with increasing temperatures is generally accepted as a signal of temperature-induced drought stress. However, variations in tree growth alone do not reveal the physiological mechanisms behind recent changes in tree growth. Examining stable carbon isotope composition of tree rings in addition to tree growth can provide a secondary line of evidence for physiological drought stress. In this study, we examined patterns of black spruce growth and carbon isotopic composition in tree rings in response to climate warming and drying in the boreal forest of interior...
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Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has occurred in the last several decades resulting in models that range widely in complexity and outputs. However, managers can still struggle to make informed decisions with these models for a variety of reasons, including misalignments between model outputs and the specific decision they are intended to inform, limitations...
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The sky island forests of the southwestern United States are one of the most diverse temperate forest ecosystems in the world, providing key habitat for migrating and residential species alike. Black bear, bighorn sheep, mule deer, and wild turkey are just a few of the species found in these isolated mountain ecosystems that rise out of the desert landscape. However, recent droughts have crippled these ecosystems, causing significant tree death. Climate predictions suggest that this region will only face hotter and drier conditions in the future, potentially stressing these ecosystems even further. Simple models predict that vegetation will move to cooler and wetter locations in response to this warming. However,...
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Owing to large climatic and orographic variation, British Columbia covers a variety of ecosystems extending from temperate rainforests on the Pacific coast to boreal forests in the north-east. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial variation of trends in wildfire activity and their relationship to summer drought for the entire province of British Columbia. Time series of annual wildfire extent and occurrence, summer self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and summer Aridity Index were derived from spatially explicit data. Sixteen landscape regions according to the provincial Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification system served as spatial reference. The regional series for 1920-2000 were subjected...
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Invasions of exotic annual grasses (EAGs like cheatgrass have caused major losses of native shrubs and grasses in western U.S. rangelands. They also decrease the productivity and carbon storage in these ecosystems, which is expected to create dryer soils that may cause further losses in plant productivity. This cycle is the hallmark of desertification – or, fertile lands turning into deserts. Management actions that target EAGs are one of the most widespread land management actions taken in Western U.S. rangelands, but it is unclear which specific actions can simultaneously enhance drought resilience of native plant communities and increase carbon sequestration and storage. This project aims to identify the restoration...
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The 2017 fire season in California was highly unusual with its late seasonal timing, the areal extent it burned, and its devastation to communities. These fires were associated with extreme winds and were potentially also influenced by unusually dry conditions during several years leading up to the 2017 events. This fire season brought additional attention and emphasized the vital need for managers in the western U.S. to have access to scientific information on when and where to expect dangerous fire events. Understanding the multiple factors that cause extreme wildfire events is critical to short and long-term forecasting and planning. Seasonal climate measures such as temperature and precipitation are commonly...
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This model archive contains the input data, model code, and model outputs for machine learning models that predict daily non-tidal stream salinity (specific conductance) for a network of 459 modeled stream segements across the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Results are provided for two time periods: the historical drought-of-record from 1965-10-02 to 1969-12-30, and that same drought evaluated in climatic conditions that are consistent with a LENS2 enseble climate projection from 2057-10-02 to 2061-12-30. Results are provided for a total of three Random Forest models, corresponding to three input attribute sets (dynamic attributes, dynamic and static attributes, and dynamic attributes and a minimum set of static attributes)....
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Increment cores from the boreal forest have long been used to reconstruct past climates. However, in recent years, numerous studies have revealed a deterioration of the correlation between temperature and tree growth that is commonly referred to as "divergence". In the Brooks Range of northern Alaska, studies of white spruce (Picea glauca) revealed that trees in the west generally showed positive growth trends, while trees in the central and eastern Brooks Range showed mixed and negative trends during late 20th century warming. The growing season climate of the eastern Brooks Range is thought to be drier than the west. On this basis, divergent tree growth in the eastern Brooks Range has been attributed to drought...
map background search result map search result map Predicting Sky Island Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Fine Scale Climate Variability, Drought Tolerance, and Fire Response Stable carbon isotope analysis reveals widespread drought stress in boreal black spruce forests Drought-induced stomatal closure probably cannot explain divergent white spruce growth in the Brooks Range, Alaska Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920-2000 Balancing Water Usage and Ecosystem Outcomes Under Drought and Climate Change: Enhancing an Optimization Model for the Red River Foundational Science Area: Ecological Drought, Climate Extremes, and the Water Cycle in the North Central U.S. Preventing Extreme Fire Events by Learning from History: The Effects of Wind, Temperature, and Drought Extremes on Fire Activity How and Why Upper Colorado River Basin Land, Water, and Fire Managers Choose to Use Drought Tools Analysis of drought sensitivity in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) from 2000 through 2016 Datasets for assessing the impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells in the conterminous United States Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions Assessing the Impacts of Rangeland Restoration on Carbon Sequestration and Co-Benefits for Drought Resilience in the Sagebrush Steppe and Mixed Grass Prairie Mean annual groundwater recharge rates for Kauaʻi for historical and future drought conditions, and 2020 land cover Mean annual groundwater recharge rates for Oʻahu for historical and future drought conditions, and three land-cover conditions Mean annual groundwater recharge rates for Molokaʻi for historical and future drought conditions, and 2020 land cover Frequency characteristics of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for Kauaʻi for historical and future drought conditions, and 2020 land cover Frequency characteristics of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for Molokaʻi for historical and future drought conditions, and 2020 land cover Delaware River Basin Stream Salinity Machine Learning Model Simulations for Past and Future Drought Mean annual groundwater recharge rates for Kauaʻi for historical and future drought conditions, and 2020 land cover Frequency characteristics of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for Kauaʻi for historical and future drought conditions, and 2020 land cover Mean annual groundwater recharge rates for Oʻahu for historical and future drought conditions, and three land-cover conditions Predicting Sky Island Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Fine Scale Climate Variability, Drought Tolerance, and Fire Response Delaware River Basin Stream Salinity Machine Learning Model Simulations for Past and Future Drought How and Why Upper Colorado River Basin Land, Water, and Fire Managers Choose to Use Drought Tools Stable carbon isotope analysis reveals widespread drought stress in boreal black spruce forests State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions Balancing Water Usage and Ecosystem Outcomes Under Drought and Climate Change: Enhancing an Optimization Model for the Red River Drought-induced stomatal closure probably cannot explain divergent white spruce growth in the Brooks Range, Alaska Preventing Extreme Fire Events by Learning from History: The Effects of Wind, Temperature, and Drought Extremes on Fire Activity Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire Assessing the Impacts of Rangeland Restoration on Carbon Sequestration and Co-Benefits for Drought Resilience in the Sagebrush Steppe and Mixed Grass Prairie Analysis of drought sensitivity in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) from 2000 through 2016 Foundational Science Area: Ecological Drought, Climate Extremes, and the Water Cycle in the North Central U.S. Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920-2000 Datasets for assessing the impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells in the conterminous United States