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In southwestern Colorado, land managers anticipate the impacts of climate change to include higher temperatures, more frequent and prolonged drought, accelerated snowmelt, larger and more intense fires, more extreme storms, and the spread of invasive species. These changes put livelihoods, ecosystems, and species at risk. Focusing on communities in southwestern Colorado’s San Juan and Gunnison river basins, this project will expand opportunities for scientists, land managers, and affected residents to identify actions that can support resilience and adaptation in the face of changing climate conditions. This project builds on the project “Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in southwestern...
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One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. To help federal land managers address this need, the North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service to pioneer an approach for incorporating climate science and scenario planning into NPS planning processes, in particular Resource Stewardship Strategies (RSS). These strategies serve as a long-range planning tool for a national park unit to achieve its desired natural and cultural resource conditions, and are used to guide a park’s full spectrum of resource-specific management plans and day-to-day management activities. To support adaptation planning within...
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Researchers with the North Central Climate Science Center have made substantial progress in assessing the impacts of climate and land use change on wildlife and ecosystems across the region. Building on this progress, researchers will work with stakeholders to identify adaptation strategies and inform resource management in the areas that will be most affected by changing conditions. There are several components of this project. First, researchers will use the Department of Interior “resource briefs” as a mechanism to communicate information to resource managers on climate and land use change and their impacts to resources. These briefs will support coordinated management of ecosystems that contain public, private,...
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Northeastern boreal forests are an important habitat type for many wildlife species, including migratory birds and moose. These animals play vital roles in the boreal forest ecosystem, are a source of pleasure for bird and wildlife watchers, and contribute to tourism revenue for many communities. However, moose and migratory birds are thought to be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. For example, in New York’s Adirondack Park system, five species of boreal birds have shown occupancy declines of 15% or more. Meanwhile, moose are threatened by winter ticks that thrive in warmer climates and spread disease. A 2018 New York Department of Environmental Conservation (NYDEC) report found that there...
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The South Central U.S. is one of the main agricultural regions in North America: annual agricultural production is valued at more than $44 billion dollars. However, as climate conditions change, the region is experiencing more frequent and severe droughts, with significant impacts on agriculture and broader consequences for land management. For example, in 2011 drought caused an estimated $7.6 billion in agricultural losses in Texas and an additional $1.6 billion in Oklahoma. Although there are many drought monitoring tools available, most of these tools were developed without input from the stakeholders, such as farmers and ranchers, who are intended to use them. The goal of this project was to assess the information...
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Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators from the North American Breeding Bird Survey data. The indicators were used to test hypotheses regarding changes in range and distribution of breeding birds. The results will support the Northeast Climate Science Center’s Science Agenda, including the science priority: researching ecological vulnerability and species response...
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Forests are of tremendous ecological and economic importance. They provide natural places for recreation, clean drinking water, and important habitats for fish and wildlife. However, the warmer temperatures and harsher droughts in the west that are related to climate change are causing die-offs of many trees. Outbreaks of insects, like the mountain pine beetle, that kill trees are also more likely in warmer, drier conditions. To maintain healthy and functioning forest ecosystems, one action forest managers can take is to make management decisions that will help forests adapt to future climate change. However, adaptation is a process based on genetic change and few tools are currently available for managers to use...
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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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The sky island forests of the southwestern United States are one of the most diverse temperate forest ecosystems in the world, providing key habitat for migrating and residential species alike. Black bear, bighorn sheep, mule deer, and wild turkey are just a few of the species found in these isolated mountain ecosystems that rise out of the desert landscape. However, recent droughts have crippled these ecosystems, causing significant tree death. Climate predictions suggest that this region will only face hotter and drier conditions in the future, potentially stressing these ecosystems even further. Simple models predict that vegetation will move to cooler and wetter locations in response to this warming. However,...
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Resource managers, policymakers, and scientists require tools to inform water resource management and planning. Information on hydrologic factors – such as streamflow, snowpack, and soil moisture – is important for understanding and predicting wildfire risk, flood activity, and agricultural and rangeland productivity, among others. Existing tools for modeling hydrologic conditions rely on information on temperature and precipitation. This project sought to evaluate different methods for downscaling global climate models – that is, taking information produced at a global scale and making it useable at a regional scale, in order to produce more accurate projections of temperature and precipitation for the Pacific...
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The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities has long been recognized in the United States, especially in high risk areas such as the South Central region. There is ample literature on the effects of long-term climate change and short-term climate variability on the occurrence of droughts. However, it is unclear whether this information meets the needs of relevant stakeholders and actually contributes to reducing the vulnerability or increasing the resilience of communities to droughts. For example, are the methods used to characterize the severity of drought – known as drought indices – effective tools for predicting the actual damage felt by communities? As droughts...
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Projected water deficits mean that land and water managers must be proactive in their management of rivers and shallow aquifers, if they want to maintain the ecosystems dependent upon them. To do this, managers and decision makers need easy access to the best techniques available for determining how much water ecosystems need. This project will result in a Desert LCC-wide database of environmental flow needs and responses (environmental water demands) to help water and land managers make management decisions. This project will identify critical data gaps in flow need and flow response data in the Desert LCC (especially related to baseflow dependent streams) and result in a user-friendly, one-stop-shop for managers...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, All tags...
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Rainwater Harvesting and Stormwater Research is a priority research area identified by the Arizona Governor’s Blue Ribbon Panel on Water Sustainability, which recommended that universities take the lead to identify regulatory barriers, cost and benefits, water quality issues and avenues for increasing utilization of stormwater and rainwater at the regional, community and individual property level. In an effort to address the priority research area, the University of Arizona will develop a decision support tool to be used by public utilities and agencies to evaluate suitability and cost-effectiveness of rainwater and stormwater capture at various scales for multiple benefits. Data from the City of Tucson, Arizona...
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This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, Decision Support, All tags...
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There is a need to understand how alteration of physical processes on the Rio Grande River have impacted aquatic biota and their habitats, and a need to predict potential future effects of climate change on biotic resources in order to prescribe research and management activities that will enhance conservation of aquatic species. We propose a project with the goal of developing monitoring recommendations and identifying research needs for aquatic ecological resources in the Big Bend region of the Rio Grande. This goal will be targeted by synthesizing and analyzing available data and literature for aquatic species in the project region. In particular, we will work to develop time series of abundance and population...
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FY2011Research is showing that populations of wintering raptors, including Northern Harriers, Rough-Legged Hawks, Prairie Falcons, American Kestrels. Red-Tailed Hawks and Golden Eagles, have stayed relatively constant in the last 20 years are being used by the Bureau of Land Management and Idaho Army National Guard in developing raptor conservation management practices. The American Wind and WildlifeInstitute will also use the results for their wind energy siting support tools.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Data Acquisition and Development, Federal resource managers, LCC Network Science Catalog, Monitoring, Population & Habitat Evaluation/Projection, All tags...
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
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Native grasslands have been reduced to a fraction of their original extent, with estimated total loss prior to the 1990s of 70% for prairie grassland (Federal Provincial and Territorial Governments of Canada 2010). Conversion of native grassland to cropland and tame hayfields or pasture has been one of the leading drivers of native grassland loss in North America. Degradation of native grasslands also continues in some areas due to changes in natural disturbance regimes such as fire suppression and intensive prolonged cattle grazing, threats from invasive non-native species, fragmentation, intensification of agriculture, and economic development associated with population growth(Federal Provincial and Territorial...
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This carbon sequestration research is part of a new pilot grassland conservation program to protect at-risk grasslands from conversion to cropland in the northern Great Plains. Natural resources partners have leveraged more than $3 million in private and federal funding to support an innovative program that extends protection of privately-owned grasslands that have expired under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). In the past two years alone, the number of CRP acres nationally has dropped from 31.2 million to 27 million. Of the 4.2-million-acre-decline, lands lost in North Dakota and Montana accounted for 1.6 million acres, or 38 percent. The program aims to encourage private landowners to conserve CRP grasslands...
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To enhance the chances of restoring and protecting Puerto Rico’s beaches by synthesizing guidelines and procedures on beach characterization and profiling, planting, fertilization, irrigation, maintenance, monitoring, etc. and working to identify, inventory, and prioritize beaches that need and can accommodate stabilization with vegetation, or can become sources of plants for nursery propagation and planting. Information will include all permit requirements for beach restoration projects, including those associated with beaches used by sea turtles for nesting. Within the selected prioritized beaches the CAT will develop an education & awareness program, to demonstrate benefits, address needs & expectations and promote...
map background search result map search result map Improving Projections of Hydrology in the Pacific Northwest Predicting Sky Island Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Fine Scale Climate Variability, Drought Tolerance, and Fire Response Community Resilience to Drought Hazard: An Analysis of Drought Exposure, Impacts, and Adaptation in the South Central U.S. Developing Effective Drought Monitoring Tools for Farmers and Ranchers in the South Central U.S. Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Utility Guide to Rainwater/Stormwater Harvesting as an Adaptive Response to Climate Change Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey Ecological changes in aquatic communities in the Big Bend reach of the Rio Grande: Synthesis and future monitoring needs Desert LCC Environmental Flows Database Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Integrating Climate Change Research and Planning to Inform Wildlife Conservation in the Boreal Forests of the Northeastern U.S. Carbon sequestration research to benefit grassland conservation in the northern Great Plains Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2 Foundational Science Area: Climate Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Comparative Analysis of Native Prairie Spatial Delineation Methods in the Prairie Ecozone Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Dunes Conservation Action Team Current Versus Historical Trends in Habitat Use by Wintering Raptors in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Dunes Conservation Action Team Ecological changes in aquatic communities in the Big Bend reach of the Rio Grande: Synthesis and future monitoring needs Integrating Climate Change Research and Planning to Inform Wildlife Conservation in the Boreal Forests of the Northeastern U.S. Carbon sequestration research to benefit grassland conservation in the northern Great Plains Predicting Sky Island Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Fine Scale Climate Variability, Drought Tolerance, and Fire Response Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2 Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Current Versus Historical Trends in Habitat Use by Wintering Raptors in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Utility Guide to Rainwater/Stormwater Harvesting as an Adaptive Response to Climate Change Improving Projections of Hydrology in the Pacific Northwest Community Resilience to Drought Hazard: An Analysis of Drought Exposure, Impacts, and Adaptation in the South Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Climate Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Comparative Analysis of Native Prairie Spatial Delineation Methods in the Prairie Ecozone Developing Effective Drought Monitoring Tools for Farmers and Ranchers in the South Central U.S. Desert LCC Environmental Flows Database Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey