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Some areas of the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) are experiencing a decline in precipitation and streamflow and an increase in the number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. As ecosystems become altered by invasive species and as particularly hotter, more variable climates emerge, it is critical that scientists produce locally relevant, timely, and actionable science products for managers to prepare for and cope with the impacts of drought. Simultaneously, it is important that managers are able to both access this information and shape the types of data products...
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The climate in Hawai‘i is changing, and alterations in rainfall amount and distribution have implications for future vegetation cover, non-native species invasions, watershed function, and fire behavior. As novel ecosystems and climates emerge in Hawai‘i, particularly hotter and drier climates, it is critical that scientists produce locally relevant, timely and actionable science products and that managers are able to access the best-available science. Managers and researchers have identified that a knowledge exchange process is needed for drought in Hawai‘i to allow for formal collaboration between the two groups to co-produce drought data and products. To address this need, this project will pilot a focused...
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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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In Hawaiʻi, a large percentage of historically forested areas have been lost, driven in part by changes in land use, such as the conversion of forests into pastures for livestock. This transformation has not only resulted in widespread loss of native biodiversity and important ecosystem functions but has also increased the risk of fire on the landscape. Though targeted restoration efforts have the potential to increase the abundance of native forests and to return important functions, a few key obstacles remain. First, existing restoration knowledge is often experiential and thus inaccessible. Second, restoration efforts face the challenges of a changing climate that is increasing temperatures and the occurrence...
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2018 was a record-breaking year for wildfires in Hawai‘i with over 30,000 acres burned statewide, including the habitat of the Oʻahu chewstick, a critically endangered flowering plant with less than 50 individuals remaining. The frequency and severity of wildfire in Hawai‘i has been increasing, and this trend is predicted to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are promoted by highly flammable invasive plants, which can spread across the landscape, providing a widespread fuel source to feed large fires that are hard to control. However, different plant species vary in their flammability, so wildfire risk depends not only on climate, but also on which plants are present. A major concern is that new non-native plants...
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Wildfire is a significant yet underappreciated issue on Pacific Islands that threatens ecosystems from ridge-tops to reefs, including native species, waters, human communities, and natural and cultural resources. In the Hawaiian archipelago, the percentage of land burned annually is equal or greater than that burned across the western United States, with most fires occurring in drier nonnative grasslands and shrublands, which make up 25% of Hawaiʻi’s total land area. As island communities face increased wildfire risk due to climate change and other factors, such as continued plant invasions, collaborative bio-cultural stewardship approaches to adaptation will be critical to wildfire management. Fire causes and effects...
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Haleakalā National Park (HNP) and the surrounding landscape spans many different land cover types, some of which are undergoing vegetation changes that can reduce the amount of water that infiltrates into soil. Decreased soil infiltration can lead to the erosion of terrestrial habitats, increases in the amount of sediment entering aquatic habitats, and flooding of downstream areas as runoff increases after storms. Currently, HNP managers are attempting to control runoff and erosion to avoid loss and damage within park boundaries and parks located downstream. Managers in HNP have expressed a need for information on current and future runoff and erosion risk to help prioritize management within the park and other...
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Ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves provide an effective first line of defense against coastal hazards and represent a promising nature-based solution to adapt to sea-level rise. In many areas, coral reefs cause waves to break and lose energy, allowing for sediment to accumulate on the inshore portion of reef flats (i.e. the shallowest, flattest part of a reef) and mangroves to establish. Mangroves cause further attenuation (i.e. energy loss) waves and storm surge as water moves through roots and trunks of the trees. Together, these ecosystems provide valuable protection from coastal flooding, but is unclear how this protection may be affected by sea-level rise. An assessment of future sea-level rise vulnerability...
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The threat of rising sea levels to island communities is well known. However, sea-level rise projections are often depicted in ways that are not intuitive or directly applicable to community members and resource managers who most need the information. Scientific information about sea-level rise needs to be presented in a way that effectively communicates the very real risk posed to coastal communities, infrastructure, and cultural assets. This project builds upon data developed through previous USGS Pacific Islands CASC work. It goes beyond simple sea-level rise visualizations and leverages the ever-growing computational power of modern smart devices to provide interactive and immersive outreach materials through...
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Moloka‘i has great wetland restoration potential in Hawaiʻi, but most remaining sites are highly degraded. The future of several endangered waterbirds and insects relies on restoring coastal wetland habitat that is resilient under sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Currently, managers lack background data on Molokaʻi to prioritize sites for restoration. In this project, Researchers will develop a comprehensive dataset and create a prioritization plan for coastal wetland restoration. The team will work closely with project partners and stakeholders to develop a well-vetted plan to support endangered species and meeting community needs. Existing maps and spatial data about the Molokaʻi landscape will be compiled...
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For the past few years, “king tides,” or the highest tides of the year, have been occurring more frequently and significantly affecting coastal environments across Hawaiʻi. Now, disappearing beaches and waves crashing over roadways are seemingly the “new normal.” In response, the state of Hawaiʻi is implementing adaptation strategies to combat tidal flooding in coastal areas. While flood management strategies are being implemented in urban areas, less is known about how tidal flooding, and associated inundation into surface and groundwater, might influence watershed dynamics and the native animals that depend on estuarine environments where freshwater meets the sea. Efforts for biocultural restoration of ecosystem...
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Pacific Island societies value, depend on, and actively manage terrestrial and marine ecosystems for the multiple benefits they provide, including those associated with plant and animal abundance, resilience to natural disasters, and the flow of water, soil, and nutrients. New ecosystem service models developed for Pacific Island landscapes now integrate land-to-sea connections, allowing us to assess how land-based management actions and threats (e.g. changes to climate and land cover) affect ecosystem benefits, from ridge to reef. Affecting actual change on the ground, however, depends on how scientific information is accessed and used by managers and other decision makers who have the capacity to influence ecosystem...
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Freshwater is a critical driver for island ecosystems. Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands. The changes in dynamic patterns of streamflow could result in the temporal and spatial difference in the riverine, estuarine, and coastal habitats that support native species. In particular, these habitats support the nine native aquatic species in Hawaiʻi at different stages of their migratory life cycle. To examine how changes in streamflow regimes have impacted habitat quality for these native aquatic species, an ongoing project has examined statewide long-term stream records. Researchers are in the process of building hydrological models and connecting the stream dynamics with...
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The Pacific Ocean is home to a number of low-lying, coastal national parks and wildlife refuges. These public lands are situated on coral reef-lined islands that are susceptible to inundation from sea-level rise and flooding during storms. Because of their low-lying nature and limited availability of space, ecosystems, cultural resources, and infrastructure on these islands are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Sea-level rise will further exacerbate the impact of storms on island parks and refuges by increasing wave-driven coastal flooding, with consequences for ecological and human communities alike. However, most assessments of future conditions at coastal national parks and refuges consider only permanent...
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On August 21, 2017, Honolulu Harbor observed the highest hourly water level since tide gauge record collection began in 1905. Throughout the course of 2017, the gauge registered an unprecedented number of high-water events. These record high sea levels were the result of a series of compounding factors: ongoing sea-level rise, seasonally-elevated high tides, and a region of warm water combining with ocean eddies. The threat of rising sea levels to the essential infrastructure and cultural assets of island communities is well known. However, inadequate information limits the ability of resource managers to predict and prepare for the impacts of sea-level rise and associated inundation. Researchers will address...
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Sea-level rise will eventually flood and kill many coastal mangrove trees. The loss of mangrove forests will strongly affect human populations on isolated western Pacific islands as they rely heavily on mangroves for food, such as fish, shrimp, and crabs; building materials; and fire wood. Mangroves also shelter coastal communities from the impacts of tsunamis and cyclones, are home to endangered species such as the Yapese monarch and flying fox, and remove and store CO2 from the atmosphere. In the past, mangroves have adjusted to sea-level rise through tree root growth and the accumulation of sediments from rivers and oceans, processes which allow them to maintain their forest floor elevation relative to sea level....
    map background search result map search result map Supporting Sea-Level Rise Preparedness in Hawaiian National Parks Working with Natural Resource Managers to Co-Produce Drought Analyses in Hawai‘i Identifying the Risk of Runoff and Erosion in Hawaiʻi’s National Parks State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems Climate Change, Variability, and Drought in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands – Working with Managers to Mitigate the Impacts of Drought and Wildfire The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands The Future Resiliency of Mangrove Forests to Sea-Level Rise in the Western Pacific: Initiating a National Assessment Approach Visualizing Sea-level Rise at Puʻuhonua O Hōnaunau National Historic Park with Interactive, Virtual Technology (A Prototype Augmented-Reality Mobile-Phone Application) Linking Models to Outcomes – How do Hawaiʻi Stakeholders Use and Contribute to Land-to-Sea Ecosystem Service Analyses Effect of Extreme Tidal Events on Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for He‘eia Fish Communities undergoing Ahupua‘a Restoration A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Moloka‘i The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards Impacts of Extreme Events on the Native and Nonnative Aquatic Species of Hawaiʻi Stream Ecosystem Future of Fire in the Pacific Islands: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Climate Smart Restoration: Establishing Baselines and Developing Adaptive Management Approaches Visualizing Sea-level Rise at Puʻuhonua O Hōnaunau National Historic Park with Interactive, Virtual Technology (A Prototype Augmented-Reality Mobile-Phone Application) A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Moloka‘i Supporting Sea-Level Rise Preparedness in Hawaiian National Parks The Future Resiliency of Mangrove Forests to Sea-Level Rise in the Western Pacific: Initiating a National Assessment Approach The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems Climate Smart Restoration: Establishing Baselines and Developing Adaptive Management Approaches Working with Natural Resource Managers to Co-Produce Drought Analyses in Hawai‘i Identifying the Risk of Runoff and Erosion in Hawaiʻi’s National Parks Linking Models to Outcomes – How do Hawaiʻi Stakeholders Use and Contribute to Land-to-Sea Ecosystem Service Analyses Effect of Extreme Tidal Events on Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for He‘eia Fish Communities undergoing Ahupua‘a Restoration Climate Change, Variability, and Drought in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands – Working with Managers to Mitigate the Impacts of Drought and Wildfire Impacts of Extreme Events on the Native and Nonnative Aquatic Species of Hawaiʻi Stream Ecosystem The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Future of Fire in the Pacific Islands: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country