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Abstract: As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost–distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The...
Abstract The distribution and future fate of ectothermic organisms in a warming world will be dictated by thermalscapes across landscapes. That is particularly true for stream fishes and cold-water species like trout, salmon, and char that are already constrained to high elevations and latitudes. The extreme climates in those environments also preclude invasions by most non-native species, so identifying especially cold habitats capable of absorbing future climate change while still supporting native populations would highlight important refugia. By coupling crowd-sourced biological datasets with high-resolution stream temperature scenarios, we delineate network refugia across >250 000 stream km in the Northern...
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The Healthy Beaches for People and Fish project was completed by Friends of the San Juans in partnership with Coastal Geologic Services, Salish Sea Biological and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife in 2014. Project approach and work was guided by a technical advisory group, which included representatives from The University of Washington, United States Geological Survey, Puget Sound Partnership, Skagit River Systems Cooperative, Samish Indian Nation, San Juan County Public Works, San Juan County Salmon Recovery Lead Entity, The Tulalip Tribes, Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve and the Washington State Departments of Ecology, Natural Resources and Fish and Wildlife. The project contained...
Climate change has significant effects on critical ecosystem functions such as carbon and water cycling. Vegetation and especially forest ecosystems play an important role in the carbon and hydrological cycles. Vegetation models that include detailed belowground processes require accurate soil data to decrease uncertainty and increase realism in their simulations. The MC2 DGVM uses three modules to simulate biogeography, biogeochemistry and fire effects, all three of which use soil data either directly or indirectly. This study includes a correlation analysis of the MC2 model to soil depth by comparing a subset of the model’s carbon and hydrological outputs using soil depth data of different scales and qualities....
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This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow ?center? timing (the day in the ?water-year? on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic...
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Streams across the world are highly fragmented due to the presence of in-stream barriers (e.g., dams and stream-road crossings), many of which restrict or block fish passage. Retrofitting or replacing these structures is a high priority for restoring habitat connectivity for native fishes and other aquatic organisms in the Pacific Northwest. The task of restoring habitat connectivity for problematic stream-road crossings is daunting given the many thousands of barriers that are present and the massive financial investments required. Further, the potential risks to road infrastructure from flooding, debris flows, and climate change will need to be addressed to ensure the best allocation of resources. In this study,...
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This project will provide a comprehensive synthesis of beaver recolonization science and techniques for successful reintroduction or population expansion through a thorough, in-depth, coordinated review of all North American beaver-related information, including identification of research gaps and data needs, and recommendations for project implementation. This information will be disseminated through a series of one-day workshops.
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A physically based hydrology model is used to produce time series for the period 1916–2003 of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and soil moisture (SM) over the western United States from which long-term trends are evaluated. The results show that trends in ET in spring and summer are determined primarily by trends in precipitation and snowmelt that determine water availability. From April to June, ET trends are mostly positive due primarily to earlier snowmelt and earlier emergence of snow-free ground, and secondarily to increasing trends in spring precipitation. From July to September trends in ET are more strongly influenced by precipitation trends, with the exception of areas (most notably California) that receive...
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Wetlands in the remote mountains of the western US have undergone two massive ecological “experiments” spanning the 20th century. Beginning in the late 1800s and expanding after World War II, fish and wildlife managers intentionally introduced millions of predatory trout (primarily Oncorhynchus spp) into fishless mountain ponds and lakes across the western states. These new top predators, which now occupy 95% of large mountain lakes, have limited the habitat distributions of native frogs, salamanders, and wetland invertebrates to smaller, more ephemeral ponds where trout do not survive. Now a second “experiment” – anthropogenic climate change – threatens to eliminate many of these ephemeral habitats and shorten...
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Existing stream temperature data will be compiled from numerous federal, state, tribal, and private sources to develop an integrated regional database. Spatial statistical models for river networks will be applied to these data to develop an accurate model that predicts stream temperature for all fish-bearing streams in the US portion of the NPLCC. Differences between model outputs for historic and future climate scenarios will be used to assess spatial variation in the vulnerability of sensitive fish species across the NPLCC.
Abstract Landscape connectivity is crucial for many ecological processes, including dispersal, gene flow, demographic rescue, and movement in response to climate change. As a result, governmental and non-governmental organizations are focusing efforts to map and conserve areas that facilitate movement to maintain population connectivity and promote climate adaptation. In contrast, little focus has been placed on identifying barriers—landscape features which impede movement between ecologically important areas—where restoration could most improve connectivity. Yet knowing where barriers most strongly reduce connectivity can complement traditional analyses aimed at mapping best movement routes. We introduce a novel...
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Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply...
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    map background search result map search result map Detection and Attribution of Streamflow Timing Changes to Climate Change in the Western United States Twentieth-Century Trends in Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Moisture in the Western United States Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment for San Juan County, Washington Where the Stream Meets the Road: Prioritizing Culvert Replacement for Fish Passage - Thesis Amphibians in the climate vise: loss and restoration of resilience of montane wetland ecosystems in the western US - Journal Article The Beaver Restoration Guidebook Version 1.0 The cold-water climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century - Publication Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment for San Juan County, Washington Where the Stream Meets the Road: Prioritizing Culvert Replacement for Fish Passage - Thesis Amphibians in the climate vise: loss and restoration of resilience of montane wetland ecosystems in the western US - Journal Article The cold-water climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century - Publication Twentieth-Century Trends in Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Moisture in the Western United States Detection and Attribution of Streamflow Timing Changes to Climate Change in the Western United States Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States The Beaver Restoration Guidebook Version 1.0