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Our goal was to predict road culvert passability, as defined by culvert outlet drop and outlet water velocity, for three fish swimming groups using remotely collected environmental variables that have been shown to influence the passability of road culverts.We generated four boosted regression tree models, one for road culvert outlet drop and one each for the three culvert outlet water velocities, and predicted the probability of impassable road culverts on low-order streams based on the models. Independent variables in the modelsincluded the upstream area draining to the culvert, slope at the culvert, stream segment gradient and stream reach gradient.Gradient of the stream segment was the most important predictor...
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This project will improve tribal and First Nation engagement in cooperative natural resource conservation efforts. Researchers are fostering networking among tribes, First Nations and other relevant partners in the upper Midwest – Great Lakes region, and engaging tribal and First Nation representatives in the development of a set of principles and strategies for their authentic, robust inclusion in regional resource conservation cooperative frameworks. The project is conducting an environmental scan of current climate and landscape change planning initiatives as well as mitigation and resilience-building projects being implemented by tribes and First Nations in the region. The results will lead to broader inclusion...
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Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude,...
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The Nature Conservancy - Great Lakes Program is leading the development of a scalable (Great Lakes wide, individual lake basin, to coastal reach within a lake basin) rule-based spatial model for ranking the relative importance of coastal lands and waters as habitat for migrating birds. Results will guide conservation actions including land acquisition, land and water management and restoration, and development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, the team will: 1) refine, create and integrate migratory bird stopover habitat models which depict the distribution of potential stopover sites along or near the shorelines of Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and, 2) develop an online portal that will deliver...
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Waterfowl are ecologically, culturally, and economically important and their annual and long-term distributions in North America can substantially impact ecological relationships and have economic impacts. In Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana alone, recent annual sales of Federal Duck Stamps equal $2.4 million. An intensive study in Mississippi estimated the annual total economic impact of waterfowl hunting in that state was $86.8 million. North American waterfowl number in the millions, use a diversity of aquatic and terrestrial foraging niches, and can feed at rates capable of depleting local food resources. In recent years, waterfowl appear to be wintering at more northern latitudes. Sustained northern...
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Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Plecoptera), and caddisflies (Trichoptera) (a.k.a. EPT taxa) are the most environmentally sensitive of freshwater insects. They are utilized the world over as indicators of water quality in flowing waters. Their decline has been documented in Asia, Europe, and North America. A 220,321 record dataset of new and museum EPT specimen records covering much of the Midwest and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) software were used construct to current and future, climate influenced distribution models. Nearly 100 physical and historic vegetation variables and 9 BIOCLIM variables derived from downscaled climate data for the region were employed in this process. A total of 426 EPT species were...
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A key challenge in aquatic restoration efforts is documenting locations where ecological connectivity is disrupted in water bodies that are dammed or crossed by roads (road crossings). To prioritize actions aimed at restoring connectivity, we argue that there is a need for systematic inventories of these potential barriers at regional and national scales. Here, we address this limitation for the North American Great Lakes basin by compiling the best available spatial data on the locations of dams and road crossings. Our spatial database documents 38 times as many road crossings as dams in the Great Lakes basin, and case studies indicate that, on average, only 36% of road crossings in the area are fully passable...
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The Nature Conservancy - Great Lakes Program is leading the development of a scalable (Great Lakes wide, individual lake basin, to coastal reach within a lake basin) rule-based spatial model for ranking the relative importance of coastal lands and waters as habitat for migrating birds. Results will guide conservation actions including land acquisition, land and water management and restoration, and development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, the team will: 1) refine, create and integrate migratory bird stopover habitat models which depict the distribution of potential stopover sites along or near the shorelines of Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and, 2) develop an online portal that will deliver...
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Researchers assessed how an expansion of forest reserves and climate-adaptive management may improve ecological connectivity and resilience under different climate scenarios. Resilience is measured as the capacity for these systems to maintain extant forest communities and aboveground live biomass. Forest landscape change was simulated via a spatially explicit forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II. Simulations covered areas in northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan that represent northern Great Lakes forest types. Restoring and maintaining ecological connectivity is one of the primary climate change adaptation strategies available to land managers, in addition to silvicultural practices. This study is...
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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...
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Ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries is widely impaired, and many agencies and organizations are currently investing in restoring these connections to enhance target fish and wildlife populations. To assist in targeting these investments, we have been developing spatial data on the location and attributes of barriers (dams and road-stream crossings) and fish breeding habitat throughout the Great Lakes basin to analyze the optimum strategy for enhancing connectivity and restoring fish migrations. The proposed work will result in guidance for barrier restoration at scales from individual watersheds to the entire basin, refine methodologies for spatial analysis of barriers, and provide...
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The emerald ash borer (EAB) poses a tremendous threat to ash forest habitats across the upper Great Lakes. Of particular concern is the impact EAB will have on the ecology and functioning of black ash ( Fraxinus nigra) forested wetlands, which cover over 500,000 ha in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and represent the region’s most common ash forest habitat. Black ash often occurs in relatively pure stands on poorly drained sites where it serves as a foundation species exerting a strong control over ecosystem structure and functioning. Correspondingly, extirpation of this species by EAB could have negative cascading effects, including dramatic rises in water tables and shifts in vegetation composition towards...
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This project will improve tribal and First Nation engagement in cooperative natural resource conservation efforts. Researchers are fostering networking among tribes, First Nations and other relevant partners in the upper Midwest – Great Lakes region, and engaging tribal and First Nation representatives in the development of a set of principles and strategies for their authentic, robust inclusion in regional resource conservation cooperative frameworks. The project is conducting an environmental scan of current climate and landscape change planning initiatives as well as mitigation and resilience-building projects being implemented by tribes and First Nations in the region. The results will lead to broader inclusion...
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Control of invasive sea lamprey recruitment from tributary streams is a major management objective in the Great Lakes, and benefits from barriers that prevent access to spawning habitat. As society moves toward removal of more tributary barriers due to concerns about native migratory fishes, aging infrastructure, and vulnerability to climate-driven flooding, it is important to assess the costs of alternative options for sea lamprey control. This project is integrating cost estimates for application of a lamprey-specific pesticide into cost-benefit optimization models used to support decisions about barrier removals that maximize restoration of habitat for native species. By integrating lamprey control options...
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This project connects scientists and managers from federal, tribal and state agencies and nongovernmental organizations to exchange information and establish common priorities for management of terrestrial wildlife populations. To achieve these goals, we are organizing interactive workshops with partners across the region. In year 2, we will assess the risk posed by climate change and other major stressors to a subset of priority species (as identified by regional partners). This assessment will integrate available data and scientific understanding in a transparent process, detailing assumptions and uncertainties to project population-level responses of target species to climate change.
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The concept of adaptive management provides a set of good business principles to guide strategic habitat conservation, but these principles are only useful if they are put into practice through a complimentary set of business operations. To that end, if conservation is going to be successful operating at landscape scales, the conservation community must start thinking and functioning like a conservation enterprise. Much more emphasis must be placed on developing and supporting business operations that facilitate the flow of information and other resources at landscape scales. Just like successful national and global businesses, we need to develop an information supply chain to support the communication, coordination,...
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For management agencies, there is a growing need to understand (1) how climate change affects and will continue to affect wildlife populations of conservation concern, and (2) how the negative Upper Midwest Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative Request for Funding 2013 demographic effects of climate change can be mitigated through management strategies. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) integrates available data and scientific understanding in a transparent process, details assumptions and uncertainties, and ultimately projects population-level responses of target species to future climate change. Climate change is already influencing distributions and abundances of species throughout North...
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This project addressed regional climate change effects on aquatic food webs in the Great Lakes. We sought insights by examining Lake Erie as a representative system with a high level of anthropogenic impacts, strong nutrient gradients, seasonal hypoxia, and spatial overlap of cold- and cool-water fish guilds. In Lake Erie and in large embayments throughout the Great Lakes basin, this situation is a concern for fishery managers, as climate change may exacerbate hypoxia and reduce habitat volume for some species. We examined fish community composition, fine-scale distribution, prey availability, diets, and biochemical tracers for dominant fishes from study areas with medium-high nutrient levels (mesotrophic, Fairport...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Academics & scientific researchers, CSC, Climate Change, Conservation NGOs, All tags...
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In many large ecosystems, conservation projects are selected by a diverse set of actors operating independently at spatial scales ranging from local to international. Although small-scale decision making can leverage local expert knowledge, it also may be an inefficient means of achieving large-scale objectives if piecemeal efforts are poorly coordinated. Here, we assess the value of coordinating efforts in both space and time to maximize the restoration of aquatic ecosystem connectivity. Habitat fragmentation is a leading driver of declining biodiversity and ecosystem services in rivers worldwide, and we simultaneously evaluate optimal barrier removal strategies for 661 tributary rivers of the Laurentian Great...
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The annual distributions of waterfowl during autumn-winter can influence ecological, environmental, cultural, and economic relationships. We used previously developed Weather Severity Indices (WSI) that explained migration by dabbling ducks in eastern North America and weather data from the North American Regional Reanalysis to develop an open-access internet-based tool (i.e, WSI app) to visualize and query WSI data. We used data generated by the WSI app to determine if the weather known to elicit southerly migration by dabbling ducks had changed, October – April 1979 – 2014.We detected that the amount of area in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways with weather severe enough to cause southerly migration decreased...
map background search result map search result map On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Manajiwin: Respecting tribes, First nations and cultural resources in cooperative landscape and climate change decision-making Identification & Risk Assessment of Most Climate Vulnerable Terrestrial Species and Natural Communities and Climate Vulnerability Assessment in the UMGL LCC Full life cycle vulnerability assessments for the birds of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Re-establishing ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries: Prioritization in a complex system Integrated models for estimating influences of climate change on waterfowl populations, waterfowl habitat, and hunter opportunity and demographics Integrating lampricide options into a decision support tool for barrier management in Great Lakes tributaries Quantifying and mitigating the impacts of emerald ash borer on black ash forests in the upper Great Lakes region Report: Building partnerships and establishing consensus on regional priorities across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Cooperative Business Plan: Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Aquatic Connectivity business plan Publication: Restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity requires expanding inventories of both dams and road crossings Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Publication: Enhancing ecosystem restoration efficiency through spatial and temporal coordination Report: Use of an open-access internet-based tool to estimate changes in Weather Severity Indices for dabbling ducks in eastern North America Report: On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Report: Manajiwin: Respecting tribes, First nations and cultural resources in cooperative landscape and climate change decision-making Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Report: Scenarios for forest reserve expansion and adaptive management under alternative climate change scenarios in the northern Great Lakes Understanding How Climate Change will Impact Aquatic Food Webs in the Great Lakes Understanding How Climate Change will Impact Aquatic Food Webs in the Great Lakes Report: Scenarios for forest reserve expansion and adaptive management under alternative climate change scenarios in the northern Great Lakes Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Report: Building partnerships and establishing consensus on regional priorities across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Cooperative On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Manajiwin: Respecting tribes, First nations and cultural resources in cooperative landscape and climate change decision-making Identification & Risk Assessment of Most Climate Vulnerable Terrestrial Species and Natural Communities and Climate Vulnerability Assessment in the UMGL LCC Full life cycle vulnerability assessments for the birds of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Re-establishing ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries: Prioritization in a complex system Integrating lampricide options into a decision support tool for barrier management in Great Lakes tributaries Quantifying and mitigating the impacts of emerald ash borer on black ash forests in the upper Great Lakes region Business Plan: Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Aquatic Connectivity business plan Publication: Restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity requires expanding inventories of both dams and road crossings Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Publication: Enhancing ecosystem restoration efficiency through spatial and temporal coordination Report: On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Report: Manajiwin: Respecting tribes, First nations and cultural resources in cooperative landscape and climate change decision-making Integrated models for estimating influences of climate change on waterfowl populations, waterfowl habitat, and hunter opportunity and demographics Report: Use of an open-access internet-based tool to estimate changes in Weather Severity Indices for dabbling ducks in eastern North America