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We propose to empirically characterize hydrology/fish-production relationships for different ecological groups of fishes living in the Red River and associated reservoir habitats by: 1. Correlating historic hydrologic data with catch curve residuals, and 2. Annual growth rate estimates of fish collected from the Red River and associated reservoirs. The catch curve residual approach for indexing year class strength has been validated and successfully used to quantify the relationship between reservoir hydrology and YOY recruitment for white crappie and largemouth. The essence of the approach is as follows. Catch curves (a correlation between the natural log of fish abundance and age) are used to measure total instantaneous...
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This project analyzies projected changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the Great Lakes region, namely heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and droughts, using a statistically downscaled climate product produced by the Climate Working Group of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI). It will perform a probabilistic exploration of weather extremes, ideally tailored toward decision-makers who are developing impact assessments at a regional scale across the Great Lakes region.
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Although it is certain that climate change will affect the hydrology and biota of Great Plains streams, how and where these effects will be manifested is not known. This project will predict the effects of climate change on these streams by creating watershed hydrology and fish assemblage models that are both linked to watershed characteristics, then predicting changes resulting from climate change using an ensemble of general circulation models. We will identify the areas of primary conservation concern by calculating Index of Biotic Integrity values for 1,600 samples in an existing regional fish database and compare them to the areas that are most likely to experience change under future climate scenarios.
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The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (USGS St. Pete) processed lidar topographic data in Alaska. Raw lidar data are not in a format that is generally usable by resource managers and scientists for scientific analysis. Converting dense lidar elevation data into a readily usable format without loss of essential information requires specialized processing. Project included processing of lidar data acquired in Summer 2010 along the North Slope of Alaska between Colville River and Hulahula River.
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Over the last 3 years, high-resolution LiDAR elevation data has been acquired for much of the northern coast of Alaska in support of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change project. Because of funding limitations, LiDAR data were not collected over most river deltas and embayments. Subsequent discussions with scientists and managers from both public agencies and private organizations indicated a need and desire to fill the gaps in the coastal elevation data set, specifically over the low-lying deltas and estuaries that provide important habitat for migratory birds and other wildlife. The Arctic LCC provided support to help cover costs associated with acquiring and processing...
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The assessment of ecological integrity remains a primary component of present-day conservation strategies for freshwater ecosystems, but approaches vary widely in method, scale, efficiency, and sustainability. The need for standardized assessment practices have been noted in several national conservation initiatives. The range of approaches under development or in use by LCCs and partner agencies offered a timely opportunity to summarize the range of approaches, identify data that would facilitate particularly promising methods, and evaluate the success with which assessments are currently integrated into broad conservation planning and management. The investigators goals for this project were to provide LCCs and...
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Many ecosystem models, particularly those that are “mechanistic” (based on an understanding of processes), are over-parameterized (not identifiable). As a result, model parameters are selected (not estimated using an optimization technique), parametererror/covariance terms become extremely difficult to estimate, and Monte Carlo error propagation does not adequately capture the effect of all uncertain model terms. In those situations, techniques that evolved from Regional (Generalized) Sensitivity Analysis (RSA), such as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Bayes Monte Carlo, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are preferred techniques for model error propagation. These techniques can be used to...
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The primary objective of this project is to develop a short synthesis report assessing 11 habitats, using a variety of ecological indicators. The report will be one tool that the South Atlantic LCC can use to inform decision-makers, stakeholders, and the general public about the health of South Atlantic habitats. To achieve this project, six discrete project tasks have been identified and are outlined in the next section.1) Project start-up and pre-workshop preparation: IAN will carefully review the Conservation Blueprint habitats and the indicators used to assess the health of these habitats. We will become familiar with the thresholds and data analysis that the South Atlantic LCC is using for their project. This...
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This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the National Climate Assessment (NCA) 2013 report. The NCA is being conducted under the auspices of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which requires a report to the President and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates scientific information from multiple sources and sectors to highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. Findings from the NCA provide input to federal science priorities and are used by U.S. citizens, communities,...
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Coral reefs are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Importantly though, the degree of threat varies for different coral reef areas due to differences in local and regional climate drivers. Climate models are based on the scientific community’s understanding of climate drivers and were used during this project to look forward or ‘project’ conditions in coral reef areas. The projections are global maps that depict changes in acidification and the frequency and severity of the temperature stress events that cause coral bleaching. The project team found that the date by which really severe bleaching is projected to occur annually varies with latitude. Beyond this...
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The conservation community of the Caribbean can feel small, at times, or as vast as the ocean thatsurrounds us. In a growingly complex world of environmental and social obstacles it is imperative towork collaboratively across ecosystems, scales, disciplines and methodologies. Protecting natural andcultural resources is essential to sustaining our health and quality of life. People, along with the fish andwildlife, rely on clean water and the benefits of healthy rivers, streams, wetlands, forests, grasslands,coasts, coral reefs, estuaries and oceans in order to thrive. Equally as diverse and vibrant as ourecosystems are the Caribbean peoples, histories, and cultures that are arguably just as threatened as ournatural...
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Pelagic seabirds (albatrosses and petrels) find food by relying on distinct oceanographic features like transition zones, upwelling, and large eddies. These oceanographic features change intensity, distribution, and duration during El Niño/La Niña events resulting in poor breeding performance in seabirds. Climate models predict that these perturbations will last longer, be more variable, and in some cases, cause major shifts in oceanographic regimes. We analyzed our decade-­‐long dataset of tracked Laysan and black-­‐footed albatrosses (N = 192 individual trips) the breed in the Northwest Hawaiian Islands to investigate the mechanistic role that oceanography plays in affecting the foraging distributions and its...
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This study focused on sensitivity of high-elevation ecosystems in Hawai‘i to climate change. These Hawaiian ecosystems are becoming warmer and drier, and are relevant because they house many rare species, represent the last remaining stretches of uninvaded landscapes, and include wao akua – the small-statured cloud forests of great cultural significance that are the ‘realm of the gods’. Rapid climate change here presents a disproportionately high climate change impact risk. We provided models that relate current, past, and future distribution of plant species from 6000 – 7500’ feet in elevation on Haleakalā, to mean climate, extreme drought events, and soil properties. We constructed 24 models of current vegetation...
map background search result map search result map Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii Responses of Hawaiian Albatrosses to Environmental Change Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning Future Changes in Weather Extremes Derived from Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the Great Lakes Region Synthesis of South Atlantic ecosystem health indicators Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis and related techniques applied to landscape and ecological response models Incorporating an approach to aid river and reservoir fisheries in an altered landscape Systematic review of aquatic ecological integrity assessments in western North America, Identifying challenges and opportunities for integration into landscape conservation plans North Slope Alaska Admiralty Bay LiDAR US and wider Caribbean Ecosystem Governance: Connecting the Dots in Conservation Alaska LiDAR Data Processing - Colville to Staines River Incorporating an approach to aid river and reservoir fisheries in an altered landscape US and wider Caribbean Ecosystem Governance: Connecting the Dots in Conservation North Slope Alaska Admiralty Bay LiDAR Alaska LiDAR Data Processing - Colville to Staines River Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii Synthesis of South Atlantic ecosystem health indicators Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis and related techniques applied to landscape and ecological response models Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Future Changes in Weather Extremes Derived from Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the Great Lakes Region Responses of Hawaiian Albatrosses to Environmental Change Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning Systematic review of aquatic ecological integrity assessments in western North America, Identifying challenges and opportunities for integration into landscape conservation plans