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Abstract (from Ecological Society of America): Successful management of natural resources requires local action that adapts to larger‐scale environmental changes in order to maintain populations within the safe operating space (SOS) of acceptable conditions. Here, we identify the boundaries of the SOS for a managed freshwater fishery in the first empirical test of the SOS concept applied to management of harvested resources. Walleye (Sander vitreus) are popular sport fish with declining populations in many North American lakes, and understanding the causes of and responding to these changes is a high priority for fisheries management. We evaluated the role of changing water clarity and temperature in the decline...
Abstract (from Ecological Society of America): Population dynamics are often correlated in space and time due to correlations in environmental drivers as well as synchrony induced by individual dispersal. Many statistical analyses of populations ignore potential autocorrelations and assume that survey methods (distance and time between samples) eliminate these correlations, allowing samples to be treated independently. If these assumptions are incorrect, results and therefore inference may be biased and uncertainty underestimated. We developed a novel statistical method to account for spatiotemporal correlations within dendritic stream networks, while accounting for imperfect detection in the surveys. Through simulations,...
Abstract (from AGU Pubs): Land and water surfaces play a critical role in hydroclimate by supplying moisture to the atmosphere, yet the ability of climate models to capture their feedbacks with the atmosphere relative to large‐scale transport is uncertain. To assess these land‐lake‐atmosphere feedbacks, we compare the controls on atmospheric moisture simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM) with observations and reanalysis products for the Great Lakes region. Three 23 year simulations, driven by one reanalysis product and two general circulation models, are performed. RegCM simulates wetter winters and drier summers than observed by up to 31 and 21%, respectively. Moisture advection exhibits similar biases,...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Climate change is affecting the benefits society derives from forests. One such forest ecosystem service is maple syrup, which is primarily derived from Acer saccharum(sugar maple), currently an abundant and widespread tree species in eastern North America. Two climate sensitive components of sap affect syrup production: sugar content and sap flow. The sugar in maple sap derives from carbohydrate stores influenced by prior year growing season conditions. Sap flow is tied to freeze/thaw cycles during early spring. Predicting climate effects on syrup production thus requires integrating observations across scales and biological processes. We observed sap at 6 sugar maple stands spanning...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Maple sugaring mainly uses sugar and red maples (Acer saccharum and Acer rubrum) by tapping them for sap in the leafless-state across large portions of their ranges. How much sap exudes from a tap hole and how sweet this sap is, can vary substantially. Year-to-year variation in sap yield and sugar content can be primarily traced to differences in meteorological conditions that drive sap runs. Yet, how much of the total variation in sap yield and sugar content is linked to the year, site, species, tree, or tap has not been investigated systematically. Here, we reviewed the literature and also compiled a dataset of sap yield and sugar content from gravity taps on 324 red and sugar maples....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change poses a variety of threats to biodiversity. Most efforts to assess the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity try to rank species based on their vulnerability under changed environmental conditions. These efforts have often not considered the ability of organisms to adapt to the changing environment. Adding adaptability to models of population persistence should improve accuracy of forecasts. We approach this issue 1) by developing new models of Brook Trout response to changing stream temperatures and flows and 2) by developing a genetic tool for Brook Trout that will allow researchers to understand evolutionary adaption in the wild. Our modelling efforts showed that Brook Trout grow fastest...
Abstract: This research investigates how changes to floodplains in the Connecticut River Basin impact flood events. Climate impacted flows and increased development within the floodplain could lead to worsening flood events and less habitat availability for threatened species. Potential future conditions are evaluated through a wide range of scenarios to assess the range of possible impacts using a HEC-RAS 2D model. Three different flood events, 1-yr, 10-yr, and 100-yr, are evaluated for each scenario. Five metrics, Discharge, Depth, Time of Arrival, Flooding Duration, and Number of Buildings Flooded, are tracked for each scenario. These metrics are compared to select the ideal course of action given multiple potential...
Abstract (from Geoscientific Model Development): Biosphere–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in governing atmospheric composition, mediating the concentrations of key species such as ozone and aerosol, thereby influencing air quality and climate. The exchange of reactive trace gases and their oxidation products (both gas and particle phase) is of particular importance in this process. The FORCAsT (FORest Canopy Atmosphere Transfer) 1-D model is developed to study the emission, deposition, chemistry and transport of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and their oxidation products in the atmosphere within and above the forest canopy. We include an equilibrium partitioning scheme, making FORCAsT one of the...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lno.10557/abstract): Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity...
The red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) is considered an indicator of forest health. The range of the species covers much of the eastern and central US, and is often locally abundant where it occurs, primarily in deciduous forest. While there are expectations that changes in climate will result in changes in forest ecosystems, the ability of a forest indicator such as the red-backed salamander to adapt to those changes, has not been assessed. We found that the red-backed salamander may have little adaptive capacity, but that changes in climate conditions may be buffered by salamander behavior, including its typical response to retreat underground during times of high temperature or during short-term drought....
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Foliar emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC)—important precursors of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosols—vary widely by vegetation type. Modeling studies to date typically represent the canopy as a single dominant tree type or a blend of tree types, yet many forests are diverse with trees of varying height. To assess the sensitivity of biogenic emissions to tree height variation, we compare two 1-D canopy model simulations in which BVOC emission potentials are homogeneous or heterogeneous with canopy depth. The heterogeneous canopy emulates the mid-successional forest at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS). In this case, high-isoprene-emitting...
The “Reconnecting Floodplains and Restoring Green Space as a Management Strategy to Minimize Risk and Increase Resilience in the Context of Climate and Landscape Change” project explores green infrastructure opportunities to manage flows, connections, and watersheds in order to improve both flood protection and ecosystem services. This project’s research specifically investigates how restoring floodplains would impact human welfare and environmental conservation. Its research objectives are addressed in two parts: 1) developing a hydraulic model to illustrate how changes in floodplain management may impact flooding along the Connecticut River, and 2) developing a geo-spatial model that demonstrates the distribution...
The NE CASC boasts an interdisciplinary array of scientists, from ecologists to biologists, hydrologists to climatologists, each contributing new, original academic research to advance our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildlife and other natural resources in the Northeast. Needed was an outreach specialist who would interface directly with the management agencies who benefited from this research to aid the integration of this research into their management planning as part of adapting to climate change. A climatologist was preferred to address queries about climate modeling, climate change uncertainties, and other areas of climate science outside the expertise of NE CASC ecologists, biologists,...
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) are a new and relatively untapped resource within the USGS and the scientific community for coastal surveying. UAS offer a number of advantages over ground-based surveys and manned aerial systems, including the ability to rapidly deploy and efficiently collect remote sensing data, and to derive high-resolution elevations over variable terrain. The purpose of this project was to evaluate mapping, data processing, and analysis capabilities for pilot surveys of coastal beaches and marshes using UAS. The project was designed to provide a low-risk, low-cost means to explore the utility of UAS for coastal mapping on beaches and marshes, and develop methodology and capacity to acquire, process,...
Abstract (from http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601635): Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme...
Abstract (from NRC Research Press): Lakes respond heterogeneously to climate, with implications for fisheries management. We analyzed walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment to age-0 in 359 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, to (i) quantify the relationship between annual water temperature degree days (DD) and walleye recruitment success and (ii) identify the influence of lake characteristics — area, conductivity, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) catch rates, and mean DD — on this relationship. The relationship between walleye recruitment and annual DD varied among lakes and was not distinguishable from zero overall (posterior mean = −0.11, 90% CI = −0.34, 0.15). DD effects on recruitment were negative in 198 lakes (55%)...
Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the effects of climate change on fish have mostly ignored lakes, and focused instead on streams. Because surface waters represent a network of habitats, an integrated assessment of stream and lake temperatures under climate change is necessary for decision-making. This work will be used to inform the preservation of lake/stream...
Indigenous peoples and Tribal communities have lived in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence region for millenia. Throughout this time, they have lived through great uncertainty through colonialism and assimilation periods. Yet, the effort to make meaningful plans for their communities is now threatened by the uncertainty of changing trends in the environment, such as shifting lake levels and patterns of precipitation. These changes create potential financial burdens on Tribal governments and stresses on Tribal cultural practices such hunting, fishing, and harvesting of subsistence and medicinal plants. Our project focused on developing climate scenario planning activities led by the Tribes and Tribal members we worked...
Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the northeast and Midwest. Because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as climate changes throughout the region. At the same time the demand for this natural sweetener and the production of maple syrup are increasing rapidly. Our research addressed the impact of climate on the quality of maple sap used to make maple syrup. We examined yields coupled with the sugar and biochemical composition...
Abstract: Active geomorphic features of rivers like sandbars provide habitat for endangered and threatened riparian plant and animal species. However, human development has altered flow and sediment regimes, thus impairing formation of sandbars and islands. Large scale mapping of the fluvial geomorphology in river ecosystems like the Connecticut River is are necessary to understand the dynamics of these features and preserve habitat. Orthophotographs from 2012 from United States Department of Agriculture's Farm Service Agency (FSA), National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) were used to develop a model in ArcGIS Pro to identify fluvial geomorphic features in the Connecticut River and 12 of its major tributaries....