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Winter drawdown (WD) is a common lake management tool for multiple purposes such as flood control, aquatic vegetation reduction, and lake infrastructure maintenance. To minimize adverse impacts to a lake’s ecosystem, regulatory agencies may provide managers with general guidelines for drawdown and refill timing, drawdown magnitude, and outflow limitations. However, there is significant uncertainty associated with the potential to meet management targets due to variability in lake characteristics and hydrometeorology of each lake’s basin, making the use of modeling tools a necessity. In this context, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for lake water level drawdown management (HMF-Lake) and evaluated it...
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Abstract (from Biological Invasions): Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by research. Conversely, the applicability of research depends on whether it is responsive to the needs and constraints of resource managers and policy makers. However, many scientific fields including invasion ecology suffer from a disconnect between research and practice. Despite strong socio-political imperatives, evidenced by extensive funding dedicated to addressing invasive species, the pairing of invasion ecology with stakeholder needs to support effective management and policy is lacking. As a potential solution, we propose translational invasion ecology (TIE). As an extension of...
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Our ability to effectively manage wildlife in North America is founded in an understanding of how our actions and the environment influence wildlife populations. Current practices use population monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about future population status. In most cases, including the regulation of waterfowl hunting in North America, these forecasts assume that the environmental conditions observed in the past will remain the same in the future. However, climate change is influencing wildlife populations in many dynamic and uncertain ways, leading to a situation in which our observations of the past are poor predictors of the future. If we continue to...
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Aim Preventing the spread of range-shifting invasive species is a top priority for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Invasive plants become abundant and cause negative impacts in only a fraction of their introduced ranges, yet projections of invasion risk are almost exclusively derived from models built using all non-native occurrences and neglect abundance information. Location Eastern USA. Methods We compiled abundance records for 144 invasive plant species from five major growth forms. We fit over 600 species distribution models based on occurrences of abundant plant populations, thus projecting which areas in the eastern United States (U.S.) will be most susceptible to invasion under current and +2°C...
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The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area (BOHA) is at high risk to the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and erosion from coastal storms. In June 2021, the National Trust for Historic Preservation listed the islands as one of America’s 11 Most Endangered Historic Places due to climate change. BOHA partners have been working to find climate adaptive solutions to protect and sustain critical ecological and cultural resources on the islands. A range of coastal adaptation efforts are currently under consideration including increased shoreline armoring and nature-based adaptation solutions. Any action taken in the coastal zone will require an assessment of environmental and ecological communities that could potentially...
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The recent miniaturisation of implantable temperature recording tags has made measuring the water temperatures fish experience in the wild possible, but there may be a body size-dependent delay in implanted tag response time to changes in external temperature. To determine whether fish body size affects the response rate of implanted temperature tags, we implanted 20 Salvelinus fontinalis (127–228 mm fork length (FL), 15.1–120.4 g) with temperature recording tags and subjected them to rapid temperature changes (±8°C in less than 2 seconds) in the laboratory. We found that thermal transfer rates, and the lag in temperature tag response rate, was positively correlated with fish size, but the direction of temperature...
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Abstract (from The Journal of Wildlife Management): Wildlife populations are experiencing shifting dynamics due to climate and landscape change. Management policies that fail to account for non-stationary dynamics may fail to achieve management objectives. We establish a framework for understanding optimal strategies for managing a theoretical harvested population under non-stationarity. Building from harvest theory, we develop scenarios representing changes in population growth rate () or carrying capacity () and derive time-dependent optimal harvest policies using stochastic dynamic programming. We then evaluate the cost of falsely assuming stationarity by comparing the outcomes of forward projections in which...
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Abstract (from Estuaries and Coasts): A prominent form of salt marsh loss is interior conversion to open water, driven by sea level rise in interaction with human activity and other stressors. Persistent inundation drowns vegetation and contributes to open water conversion in salt marsh interiors. Runnels are shallow channels originally developed in Australia to control mosquitoes by draining standing water, but recently used to restore marsh vegetation in the USA. Documentation on runnel efficacy is not widely available; yet over the past 10 years dozens of coastal adaptation projects in the northeastern USA have incorporated runnels. To better understand the efficacy of runnels used for restoration, we organized...
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Abstract (from MDPI): Water resource managers require accurate estimates of the 7-day, 10-year low flow (7Q10) of streams for many reasons, including protecting aquatic species, designing wastewater treatment plants, and calculating municipal water availability. StreamStats, a publicly available web application developed by the United States Geologic Survey that is commonly used by resource managers for estimating the 7Q10 in states where it is available, utilizes state-by-state, locally calibrated regression equations for estimation. This paper expands StreamStats’ methodology and improves 7Q10 estimation by developing a more regionally applicable and generalized methodology for 7Q10 estimation. In addition to...
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The sensitivity of forecast-informed reservoir operating policies to forecast attributes (lead-time and skill) in many-objective water systems has been well-established. However, the viability of forecast-informed operations as a climate change adaptation strategy remains underexplored, especially in many-objective systems with complex trade-offs across interests. Little is known about the relationships between forecast attribute and policy robustness under deep uncertainty in future conditions and the relationships between forecast-informed performance and future hydrologic state. This study explores the sensitivity of forecast-informed policy robustness to forecast lead-time and skill in the outflow management...
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LakeLevel Tracker’s user interface: Key features The application’s freely available interface guides users through a straightforward process to generate data and simple figures. Users can access the GEE web application at this link (https:// tinyurl.com/musexpyw), navigate to a lake and specify a date range to generate surface water area and water level charts (Figure 1). Users can visualize changes in surface water area and water level over seasons or years and download the data for further analysis. More information on how to use this web application with step-by-step instructions can be found at this link (https://tinyurl.com/yxnernxv).
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Abstract (from MDPI): Artificial manipulation of lake water levels through practices like winter water-level drawdown (WD) is prevalent across many regions, but the spatiotemporal patterns are not well documented due to limited in situ monitoring. Multi-sensor satellite remote sensing provides an opportunity to map and analyze drawdown frequency and metrics (timing, magnitude, duration) at broad scales. This study developed a cloud computing framework to process time series of synthetic aperture radar (Sentinel 1-SAR) and optical sensor (Landsat 8, Sentinel 2) data to characterize WD in 166 lakes across Massachusetts, USA, during 2016–2021. Comparisons with in situ logger data showed that the Sentinel 1-derived...
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Horticulture could facilitate invasive plant range infilling and range expansion with climate change
Abstract (from Bioscience): Invasive plants are often sold as ornamental garden plants, but how often are species sold in the same locations as where they are invasive? To answer this question, we assessed the geography of ornamental plant sales in the United States in relation to existing invasions and potential invasion risk with climate change. Using a data set of 672 nurseries selling 89 invasive plants, we estimated the distance between nursery sales and invasive species’ observed distributions. We also used species range maps to identify nursery sales within current potential invaded ranges, as well as within species’ future potential ranges given climate change. Half of the species were sold by a nursery...
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