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ROOT _ScienceBase Catalog __National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers ___Alaska CASC ____FY 2011 Projects _____Development of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model to Illustrate Future Landscape Change ______Approved Products Filters
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Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1873965215000110): The goal of this study was to assess the importance of the 2007 sea ice retreat for hydrologic conditions on the Alaskan North Slope, and how this may have influenced the outbreak of tundra fires in this region. This study concentrates on two years, 2007 and 1996, with different arctic sea ice conditions and tundra fire activity. The year of 2007 is characterized by a low summer sea ice extent (second lowest) and high tundra fire activity, while 1996 had high sea ice extent, and few tundra fires. Atmospheric lateral boundary forcing from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis drove the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, along with varying...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Atmospheric circulation,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
Sea ice,
Abstract: Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9934/abstract): Adaptation planning in Alaska, as in other snowy parts of the world, will require snow projections, yet snow is a challenging variable to measure, simulate and downscale. Here we describe the construction and evaluation of 771-m-resolution gridded historical and statistically downscaled projections of snow/rain partitioning for the state of Alaska at decadal temporal resolution. The method developed here uses observational data to describe the relationship between average monthly temperature and the fraction of wet days in that month receiving snow, the snow-day fraction. Regionally and seasonally specific equations were developed to...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska,
Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
climate change,
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303446): Across a global network of eddy covariance flux towers, two relatively new open-path infrared gas analyzers (IRGAs), the IRGASON and the EC150, are increasingly used to measure net carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes (Fc_OP). Differences in net CO2 fluxes derived from open- and closed-path IRGAs in general remain poorly constrained. In particular, the performance of the IRGASON and the EC150 for measuring Fc_OP has not been characterized yet. These IRGAs measure CO2 absorption, which is scaled with air temperature and pressure before converting it to instantaneous CO2 density. This sensor-internal conversion is based on a slow-response thermistor...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Absorption,
Alaska CASC,
Carbon dioxide fluxes,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GB005548/full): Burn area and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing during recent decades in North America, and this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century. While many aspects of the North American carbon budget have been intensively studied, the net contribution of fire disturbance to the overall net carbon flux at the continental scale remains uncertain. Based on national scale, spatially explicit and long-term fire data, along with the improved model parameterization in a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated the impact of fire disturbance on both direct carbon emissions and net terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12757/abstract): The landscape of the Barrow Peninsula in northern Alaska is thought to have formed over centuries to millennia, and is now dominated by ice-wedge polygonal tundra that spans drained thaw-lake basins and interstitial tundra. In nearby tundra regions, studies have identified a rapid increase in thermokarst formation (i.e., pits) over recent decades in response to climate warming, facilitating changes in polygonal tundra geomorphology. We assessed the future impact of 100 years of tundra geomorphic change on peak growing season carbon exchange in response to: (i) landscape succession associated with the thaw-lake cycle; and (ii) low, moderate,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
arctic,
carbon balance,
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13612/full): Rich fens are common boreal ecosystems with distinct hydrology, biogeochemistry and ecology that influence their carbon (C) balance. We present growing season soil chamber methane emission (FCH4), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes from a 9-years water table manipulation experiment in an Alaskan rich fen. The study included major flood and drought years, where wetting and drying treatments further modified the severity of droughts. Results support previous findings from peatlands that drought causes reduced magnitude of growing season FCH4, GPP and NEE, thus reducing or reversing...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers
This report describes the progress made by the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project for the full duration of the project (September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2016).This primary goal in this project was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The major activities of the project include (1) development and delivery of input data sets, (2) model coupling, (3) evaluation and applications of fire and vegetation dynamics, (4) evaluation and application of ecosystem carbon and energy balance, (5) evaluation...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska,
Alaska CASC,
Biogeochemistry,
Carbon Dioxide,
Climate Change,
Abstract (from http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v520/n7546/full/nature14338.html): Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Biogeochemistry,
Climate Change,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Organic Carbon,
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165232X1400038X#): We present an inverse modeling approach for reconstructing the effective thermal conductivity of snow on a daily basis using air temperature, ground temperature and snow depth measurements. The method is applied to four sites in Alaska. To validate the method we used measured snow densities and snow water equivalents. The modeled thermal conductivities of snow for the two interior Alaska sites have relatively low values and reach their maximum near the end of the snow season, while the conductivities at the two sites on the Alaskan North Slope are higher and reach their maximum earlier in the snow season. We show that the reconstructed...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
SWE,
Science Tools for Managers,
Snow thermal conductivity,
Abstract (from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26463267): Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse-scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice-rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half-century, and much of these carbon-rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
boreal,
permafrost,
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