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Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases....
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Abstract (from Ecosphere): Understanding invasive species spread and projecting how distributions will respond to climate change is a central task for ecologists. Typically, current and projected air temperatures are used to forecast future distributions of invasive species based on climate matching in an ecological niche modeling approach. While this approach was originally developed for terrestrial species, it has also been widely applied to aquatic species even though aquatic species do not experience air temperatures directly. In the case of lakes, species respond to lake thermal regimes, which reflect the interaction of climate and lake attributes such as depth, size, and clarity. The result is that adjacent...
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Types: Citation
Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Walleye (Sander vitreus) and Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) are culturally, economically, and ecologically significant fish species in North America that are affected by drivers of global change. Here, we review and synthesize the published literature documenting the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch. We focus on four drivers: climate (including temperature and precipitation), aquatic invasive species, land use and nutrient loading, and water clarity. We identified 1232 tests from 370 papers, split evenly between Walleye (N=613) and Yellow Perch (N=620). Climate was the most frequently studied driver (N=572) and growth/condition was the most frequently studied response (N=297). The most commonly...
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The dataset described here includes estimates of historical (1980–2020) daily surface water temperature, lake metadata, and daily weather conditions for lakes bigger than 4 ha in the conterminous United States (n = 185,549), and also in situ temperature observations for a subset of lakes (n = 12,227). Estimates were generated using a long short-term memory deep learning model and compared to existing process-based and linear regression models. Model training was optimized for prediction on unmonitored lakes through cross-validation that held out lakes to assess generalizability and estimate error. On the held-out lakes with in situ observations, median lake-specific error was 1.24°C, and the overall root mean squared...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Fish catch and effort data for three species caught in gill nets and trap nets between 1988 and 2019 as part of Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys conducted during the summer and early fall are included from over 1,300 Minnesota lakes. The three fish species included are: bluegill (Lepomis marochirus) a warm-water adapted species, yellow perch (Perca flavescens) a cool-water adapted species, and cisco (Coregonus artedi) a cold-water adapted species. Additional data concerning lake characteristics and surrounding land cover were also included. Mean July lake surface temperature was calculated using simulated daily water temperatures. Watershed land use including agricultural, barren,...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: ecological modeling,
fisheries,
freshwater fish,
water temperature
Climate change affects the abundance and distribution of species worldwide. Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are extremely sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. Here, we combine empirical observations of species abundance and environmental conditions across the landscape with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to changes in temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. We show that predicted changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service
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