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Oregon’s Upper Klamath Basin is one of the warmest watersheds in the Pacific Northwest. Despite its naturally warm waters, the basin supports abundant redband trout. These are some of the largest-bodied trout in the entire U.S., and are a culturally and economically important species, providing the last remaining subsistence fishery for the Klamath Tribes and drawing recreational anglers. The ability of this coldwater species to survive in one of the region’s warmest watersheds could hold valuable clues for conservation in the face of warming global temperatures, which represents one of the biggest threats to North America’s coldwater fish. Previous research has found that redband trout rely heavily on spring-fed...
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Hawaiʻi is home to a rich diversity of native plants, about 90 percent of which are found nowhere else in the world. However, changing climate conditions may reduce the amount of suitable habitat for native plants and contribute to the spread of invasive plant species. The goal of this project was to better understand how Hawaiian native and invasive plants will respond to climate change. Scientists focused on 10 important native and five important invasive plant species, using over 35 years of data from thousands of locations in Hawai‘i to assess the plants’ preferred climate conditions and model their likely best future habitat based on climate change projections. The resulting maps and findings provide an initial...
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Hawaiian forest birds play important roles in many ecological processes. For example, 61% of native flowering Hawaiian plant species are either bird pollinated or dispersed through ingestion by birds. However, native bird communities across Hawaiʻi continue to decline despite efforts to control predators and enhance habitat. These declines are, in part, due to the mosquito-borne avian pox and avian malaria. Scientific forecasts of the impact of avian disease on native bird populations under various climate change scenarios predict severe declines and species extinctions in all remaining forest habitat within the next 50 years. While little can currently be done to mitigate the effects of climate change on disease...
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Improving the quality of habitat for western big-game species, such as elk and mule deer, was identified as a priority by the Department of the Interior in 2018. Maintaining healthy herds not only supports the ecosystems where these species are found, but also the hunting and wildlife watching communities. For example, in Wyoming, big game hunting contributed over $300 million to the state’s economy in 2015. Yet as climate conditions change, the quantity, quality, and timing of vegetation available to mule deer, elk, and other ungulates, known as forage, could shift. It’s possible that these changes could have cascading impacts on the behavior and population sizes of many species. A key strategy used by managers...
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The City and Borough of Juneau, Alaska has the highest urban avalanche danger in the U.S., with regular impacts to people, property, critical infrastructure, and natural resources. Avalanche hazard zones occur over a large area extending from downtown Juneau to the Snettisham power plant 50 km to the south, the Kensington Mine 60 km to the north, and the Eaglecrest Ski area 6 km to the west. Developing a better understanding of avalanches and the processes leading to avalanche formation in the Juneau area is critical. This information would greatly aid local and regional efforts to forecast avalanches and update avalanche hazard maps, including the risk to transportation, utility, and mining corridors. An important...
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Tribes and tribal lands in the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains region are already experiencing the effects of climate change, and tribal managers are also already responding to and preparing for the impacts of those changes. However, these managers face many challenges and obstacles to either completing and/or implementing their adaptation plans. The overall goal of this project is to provide tribal managers in this region the opportunity to share experiences, challenges, and successes with each other in order to support climate adaptation efforts. The project researchers will plan and conduct a workshop for tribes in the north central region that are in some stage of climate adaptation planning or implementation....
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In the Great Plains, climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense droughts, severe rainfall events, and heat waves. Adapting to changing conditions will require coordination in the research and observation capabilities of multiple organizations, institutions, and government programs. In light of these needs, researchers worked with federal, state, tribal, university, and non-governmental organization partners to (1) synthesize the current state of ecosystems in the Great Plains; (2) assess the ability of human and ecological communities in the region to adapt to climate change; and (3) develop a process to improve future assessments of the vulnerability of the region’s natural and cultural resources...
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In the western U.S., rising temperatures and pronounced drought conditions pose significant challenges to public land managers. Widespread declines of multiple plant species have already been observed, providing insight into what the future could look like for vegetation in the region as conditions are projected to become warmer and drier. To understand how vulnerable western ecosystems are to drought, managers need to know which climatic and soil conditions cause habitats to change, and at what rate these changes may occur – important topics on which there is little available data. This project seeks to identify the vulnerability of habitats in the western U.S. to drought. Researchers will compare changes in...
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Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in walleye and other native fishes, and worsening water quality due to increases in temperature and shifts in precipitation, has prompted concern among regional anglers who may abandon certain fisheries as these changes occur. Understanding how changes in climate may affect glacial lakes region fishes, and how fishery managers...
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Extreme events not only affect people but can have detrimental impacts on natural resources, such as fish and freshwater habitats. Impacts of extreme events, like hurricanes, tornadoes, and extreme flooding, have immediate consequences, but also have the ability to alter habitats and animals far in the future by providing opportunities for exotic species to colonize new areas. Some fish communities in streams, rivers, and lakes may have the natural ability to resist the long-term impacts of extreme weather events. In this project, researchers will investigate the ability of Caribbean fish assemblages in Puerto Rico, which have both economic and cultural importance, to resist the impacts of extreme weather events....
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In order for science to have the most impact on resource management, it needs to directly address the questions that managers and other stakeholders have. Essentially, the ways in which researchers and resource managers collaborate can affect the use of scientific information in decision-making. Previous research has shown that relatively more collaboration between researchers and resource managers (or even the general public) tends to lead to more and more effective use of new scientific information. However, we do not yet have good ways to evaluate these research processes or the outcomes we expect them to produce. This project will assess the key variables necessary for the successful production of usable climate...
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For centuries, tribal and indigenous communities have relied on natural resources to sustain their families, communities, traditional ways of life, and cultural identities. This relationship with both land and water ecosystems makes indigenous people and cultures particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In 2015, the Southwest Climate Science Center partnered with the University of Arizona Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions (CCASS) to develop regional capacity for engagement with tribes to support climate change adaptation. CCASS is now building on the success of the 2015 project and is strengthening partnerships to support the climate adaptation capacity of tribes in the Southwest....
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The Interior Southwest (Arizona, Nevada, and Utah) is home to a vast and diverse geography consisting of deep canyons, great expanses of desert, mountain ranges, and forests, as well as diverse human communities. The majority of the land in these states is held by state, federal and tribal entities; and environmental changes pose challenges to the management of these public and tribal lands across the region. Assessing and addressing the information needs of federal, state, and tribal resource managers is a critical part of helping these decision-makers manage risk and adapt to these changes. Identification and evaluation of existing barriers and opportunities for knowledge exchange between scientists and managers...
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This project aimed to contribute to effective decision making in the region for the scientific community and general public. Resource managers in the Great Basin are dealing with significant questions regarding how best to make decisions in the natural and human systems in response to climate change. Vulnerability assessments and other tools are used for climate change adaptation, but their effectiveness is not widely understood or examined. Assessing these tools for their utility and for their ability to translate science into accessible and available information for users, including the general public, is critical for the future viability and sustainability of the Great Basin. This project applied social and policy...
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What will the rivers of the Pacific Northwest look like in the future? Will they be stable or unstable? Will the waters be cold and clear or warm and muddy? Will they have salmon or other species? These questions motivated our two-year study of climate warming effects on headwater streams draining the Cascade Mountains. Using a novel combination of snow, geohydrology, and sediment transport models we assessed the vulnerability of stream channels to changing peak streamflow. Our snow modeling shows that with just a 2°C warming, snowfall shifts to rainfall at all elevations, peak snowpacks occur over two months earlier, and snowpacks are reduced by over half of historical values. Our geohydrology modeling shows that...
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Tribal communities’ traditions, identities, and economies rely heavily on local natural resources, making tribes especially vulnerable to climate change impacts, including changes in seasonal patterns and the potential loss of culturally and economically important species. The goal of this project was to build tribal capacity in the Pacific Northwest to successfully plan for and adapt to the effects of climate change. The funds associated with this project supported the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI) Tribal Leaders Summit on Climate Change held on March 10-11, 2015 in Portland, Oregon. The summit gathered tribal leaders to discuss climate change impacts; share tribal strategies, plans, and policies;...
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Over 50% of commercial and recreationally important fish species depend on coastal wetlands. In the Pacific Northwest, coastal wetlands, where the ocean meets the land, are highly productive areas that support a wealth of wildlife species from salmon to ducks. The tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays of coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. However, wetlands in this region and elsewhere are threatened by sea-level rise and other climate-related changes. According to a USFWS and NOAA report, between 2004 and 2009, 80,000 acres of wetland were lost on average each year, which is a significant increase from the previous...
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This project identifies opportunities to manage flows, connections, and landscapes to increase the resilience of human communities and ecosystems. This research identifies dynamic and adaptive solutions to managing river flows that allow continued provision of valuable infrastructure services such as flood control, hydropower, and water supply, while also supporting thriving river ecosystems - both today and into the future. The goals of the research were to: 1) Evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on hydrologic regimes, 2) Determine the flow regime changes that will be required to provide riverine environmental services and any risk associated with these changes, and 3) Explore management alternatives...
map background search result map search result map Climate Change and Peak Flows: Informing Managers About Future Impacts to Streamflow Dynamics and Aquatic Habitat Marshes to Mudflats: Climate Change Effects Along Coastal Estuaries in the Pacific Northwest Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Great Plains Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands Assessing the Usefulness of Vulnerability Assessments and Other Science-based Tools in Climate Adaptation Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Science to Inform the Reconnection of Floodplains and Restoration of Green Space to Minimize Risk in the Future Support for the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians Tribal Leaders Summit on Climate Change Producing Impactful Science: The Effect of Stakeholder Engagement Strategies on the Use of Climate Science in Management Decisions Continued Partnerships to Increase Capacity for Tribal Natural Resource Adaptation Planning Impacts of Global Change on Biotic Resistance, Resilience, and Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Fish Assemblages, Fisheries, and Aquatic Ecosystems Predicting Future Forage Conditions for Elk and Mule Deer in Montana and Wyoming Supporting Tribal Climate Adaptation in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Region Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest From Public Hazard to Key Drivers of Landscape Change: Understanding the Role of Avalanches in Southeast Alaska How Will Coldwater Fish Survive in a Warming Future? Identifying Life-Stage Specific Use of Coldwater Refugia in the Klamath Basin and Willamette River Building Knowledge Exchange Networks to Support Climate Adaptation in the Interior Southwest Assessing Mosquito Populations on the Island of Hawai'i to Help Limit the Spread of Avian Diseases and Inform the Conservation of Hawaiian Forest Birds Impacts of Global Change on Biotic Resistance, Resilience, and Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Fish Assemblages, Fisheries, and Aquatic Ecosystems Assessing Mosquito Populations on the Island of Hawai'i to Help Limit the Spread of Avian Diseases and Inform the Conservation of Hawaiian Forest Birds How Will Coldwater Fish Survive in a Warming Future? Identifying Life-Stage Specific Use of Coldwater Refugia in the Klamath Basin and Willamette River From Public Hazard to Key Drivers of Landscape Change: Understanding the Role of Avalanches in Southeast Alaska Science to Inform the Reconnection of Floodplains and Restoration of Green Space to Minimize Risk in the Future Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands Climate Change and Peak Flows: Informing Managers About Future Impacts to Streamflow Dynamics and Aquatic Habitat Support for the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians Tribal Leaders Summit on Climate Change Predicting Future Forage Conditions for Elk and Mule Deer in Montana and Wyoming Producing Impactful Science: The Effect of Stakeholder Engagement Strategies on the Use of Climate Science in Management Decisions Assessing the Usefulness of Vulnerability Assessments and Other Science-based Tools in Climate Adaptation Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Marshes to Mudflats: Climate Change Effects Along Coastal Estuaries in the Pacific Northwest Building Knowledge Exchange Networks to Support Climate Adaptation in the Interior Southwest Supporting Tribal Climate Adaptation in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Region Continued Partnerships to Increase Capacity for Tribal Natural Resource Adaptation Planning Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Great Plains Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S.