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Droughts in the Hawaiian Islands can enhance wildfire risk, diminish freshwater resources, and devastate threatened and endangered species on land and in nearshore ecosystems. During periods of drought, cloud-water interception, or fog drip (the process by which water droplets accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants and then drip to the ground) in Hawai‘i’s rain forests may play an important role in providing moisture for plants, reducing wildfire risk within the fog zone, and contributing to groundwater recharge (the process by which water moves downward from the surface through the ground to the groundwater table) that sustains water flow in streams during dry periods. Estimates of the changes in water...
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Over the past century, Hawaiʻi has experienced a pronounced decline in precipitation and stream flow and a number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. Several climate-related factors are influencing Hawaiˈi’s landscapes and contributing to these changes. These include climate change, climate variability, and drought (referred to collectively as CCVD). Climate variability describes how the climate fluctuates on a yearly basis around average values, while climate change describes patterns of long-term continuous change in the average. While it is understood that CCVD...
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As elevation increases, both temperature and moisture availability decrease. In many parts of the world, this decrease in temperature is a limiting factor for vegetation—at certain elevations, the temperature becomes too cold for plants to survive. However in the tropics, moisture availability may play a more important role than temperature in determining the altitude at which forests can grow. For example on Haleakalā, a volcano on the Hawaiian Island of Mauʻi, the forest line is not found at the same elevation everywhere, as you would expect if it were controlled by temperature. Rather, the forest line is highest in the wetter eastern-most end and lower on the drier, western end of the volcano. Research also...
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On Hawai‘i’s mountains, cloud droplets, propelled by strong winds, are deposited on plants, where they accumulate and drip to the ground, adding water over and above that supplied by rainfall. Prior studies show that the amount of intercepted cloud water is substantial, and variable from place to place. Estimates of the spatial patterns of cloud water interception (CWI), the fog-related effects on plants, and the contributions of fog to groundwater recharge and surface water flows are needed to better understand the water cycle and predict effects of climate change on water supply and ecosystems. We will make measurements of fog, wind, fog interception, soil moisture, and fog effects on plant water use and plant...
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Agriculture and agroforestry (tree cultivation) are important activities for the Marshall Islands and other small islands to ensure food security and human health. The Marshallese have a long tradition of interplanting food-producing trees such as coconuts, breadfruit, and pandanus with bananas and root and vegetable crops. Locally grown food crops support community self-sufficiency, promote good nutrition, and can also serve as windbreaks and stabilize shorelines to lessen storm damage and erosion. However, climate change is posing serious challenges for growers, as they struggle to adapt to climate impacts including saltwater intrusion, changing precipitation and temperature patterns, and the spread of invasive...
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Increasing numbers of hazardous inundation events due to climate change is a serious threat to the culture, habitat, and infrastructure of the Hawaiian and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. The information currently available to stakeholders, however, is primarily confined to maximum or mean water level and does not include how often incursions are likely to occur. We propose to quantify the effect of local factors and Pacific climate variability on the frequency of inundation events in centers of population and infrastructure in Pacific island communities. We will produce seasonal outlooks that project the number of incursions above a given level at a particular site in 3-6 month windows. We choose seasonal outlooks,...
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As one of the lowest-lying island nation-states in the world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is acutely vulnerable to sea-level rise, flooding, and the associated intrusion of saltwater into crucial freshwater supplies. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production in the RMI. Many Marshallese communities are already experiencing these changes and are migrating to larger islands within the RMI and to other countries like the U.S. to, among other things, seek alternative means of making a living and access healthcare. The number of Marshallese residing in the U.S. has rapidly risen over the past two decades, from 7,000 in 2000 to 22,000 in 2010. There is also substantial internal migration,...
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that low-lying atolls (ring-shaped islands or island chains made of coral) in the Pacific Ocean are extremely vulnerable to high tide events (“king tides”), storm surge, tsunamis, and sea-level rise. The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) spreads over 29 atolls and has a population of over 50,000 people with homes and communities that may be threatened by these climate change-related events. Policy makers, planners, and others within RMI are faced with decisions about how to prepare for the future and need scientific data and information about the vulnerability of Pacific Islands to potential climate change impacts like sea-level rise. Topographic and bathymetric...
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Climate change in Hawaiʻi is expected to result in increasing temperatures and varying precipitation through the twenty-first century. Already, high elevation areas have experienced rapidly increasing temperatures and there has been an increase in the frequency of drought across the Islands. These climatic changes could have significant impacts on Hawaiʻi’s plants and animals. Changes in temperature and moisture may make current habitat no longer suitable for some species, and could allow invasive species to spread into new areas. Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park is home to 23 species of endangered vascular plants and 15 species of endangered trees. Understanding how climate change may impact the park’s plants...
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Land, water, and natural resource managers and planners across Hawai’i are tasked with making important decisions about the state’s future. Reliable projections of Hawaiʻi's climate are needed to inform these decisions. This project aims to provide this needed scientific information to resource managers by improving estimates of Hawaiʻi’s near-term climate for the coming years and decades. The goal of this project is to develop very high-resolution climate projections for the Hawaiian Islands over the period from 2010 to 2039. This timeframe is novel. Most climate projections for Hawai’i are for the end of the century. In contrast, the timeframe of this study is “now”, which has intuitive relevance to resource...
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The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) spreads over 29 atolls and has a population of over 50,000 people; over 27,000 of those people live on the Majuro Atoll, RMI’s capital. Sea level rise threatens the very existence of RMI as high-end projections of sea level rise by the end of the century exceed the average elevation of these low atoll reef islands. Already, waves wash over Majuro during “king tides” when strong winds blow from the west across the broad lagoon, or when there are high open ocean waves. Flooding waves breach island shores in multiple locations and wash into homes, cemeteries, across roads, and into commercial districts. Over the past decade, there has been a widespread exodus of residents...
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With an average elevation of just seven feet above sea level, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is acutely vulnerable to inundation from both episodic events such as storm surge and chronic conditions such as sea-level rise. Some projections estimate that future sea-level rise could exceed the average elevation of these islands by 2100. Already, residents are facing extreme high tides and 16 foot swells that flood the islands with saltwater, damaging homes and infrastructure and contaminating the freshwater supply. Land elevation is the primary factor that determines the vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation. This project builds on previous work in which a 1-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM)...
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The beaches of the Hawaiian Islands attract nearly 9 million visitors each year, who inject around $15.6 billion into the state’s economy and support almost 200,000 jobs. Beyond their economic importance, Hawaiian beaches are also culturally and ecologically valuable. However, climate change driven sea-level rise is causing many beaches to disappear, endangering property, infrastructure, and critical habitats. The goal of this project was to develop a method for forecasting erosion-vulnerable beach areas that could be used in coastal management planning. Researchers focused on the island of Kauaʻi, modeling beach response to rising sea level over the next century and producing maps that provide information about...
    map background search result map search result map Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park Developing an Agroforestry Dashboard for the Marshall Islands Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi Measurement of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Climate Conditions and Ecosystem Responses in Hawaiʻi Projecting the Frequency and Impact of Future Coastal Flooding and Inundation Events in the Pacific Islands Cloud Water Interception in Hawai‘i - Part 1: Understanding the Impact of Fog on Groundwater and Ecosystems and Future Changes to these Processes Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi Understanding the Effect of Climate Change on the Migration of Marshallese Islanders Collecting Elevation Data to Understand Climate Change Effects in the Marshall Islands Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i Simulating and Projecting Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Majuro Atoll Near-term Climate Projections to Inform Adaptation in the Hawaiian Islands Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll Collecting Elevation Data to Understand Climate Change Effects in the Marshall Islands Simulating and Projecting Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Majuro Atoll Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park Effects of Drought on Soil Moisture and Water Resources in Hawai‘i Cloud Water Interception in Hawai‘i - Part 1: Understanding the Impact of Fog on Groundwater and Ecosystems and Future Changes to these Processes Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi Developing an Agroforestry Dashboard for the Marshall Islands Understanding the Effect of Climate Change on the Migration of Marshallese Islanders Near-term Climate Projections to Inform Adaptation in the Hawaiian Islands Projecting the Frequency and Impact of Future Coastal Flooding and Inundation Events in the Pacific Islands