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Determining which species, habitats, or ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate change enables resource managers to better set priorities for conservation action. To address the need for information on vulnerability, this research project aimed to leverage the expertise of university partners to inform the North Central Climate Science Center on how to best assess the vulnerability of elements of biodiversity to climate and land use change in order to inform the development and implementation of management options. Outcomes from this activity were expected to include 1) a framework for modeling vegetation type and species response to climate and land use change, 2) an evaluation of existing alternative vegetation...
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Species are adapted to particular environmental conditions, but are threatened as climate change shifts habitat conditions. One way species can respond is by moving to new suitable locations, known as climate-driven range shifts. But some species can move more easily and/or more quickly than others, and some landscapes are more difficult to cross. In the upper Midwest, the movement potential of many species is reduced by broad expanses of row-crop agriculture, roads and other types of development that fragment the remaining habitat. It is important to sustain and improve connectivity across landscapes so they can continue to support biodiversity and ecosystem services like water filtration, carbon storage, pollinator...
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While 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in Puerto Rico and the broader U.S. Caribbean (whose geography is contained within the Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative, or CLCC), the low variability and already high annual average temperatures suggest that the largest climate-related impact on ecosystems and water resources is more likely to be through changes in the timing, pattern, and availability of moisture. The development of adaptation strategies that respond to anthropogenic climate change for the CLCC, and particularly for Puerto Rico, is currently hindered by the lack of local-scale climate scenarios that resolve the complex topographical and meso-scale climate features that will...
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Currently, maintaining appropriate flows to support biological integrity is difficult for larger riverine ecosystems. Climate change, through increased temperature, reduced rainfall, and increased rainfall intensity, is expected to reduce water availability and exacerbate the maintenance of ecological flows in the Arkansas-Red River basin. Understanding the nexus among climate change effects on streamflow, water quality, and stream ecology for watersheds in the Arkansas-Red River Basin can be achieved using currently existing science and technology. This nexus approach will strengthen adaptive-management strategies that focus on shared ecosystem conservation watershed targets. This approach will provide natural-resource...
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Ongoing and future climate change throughout Alaska has the potential to affect terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide to the people of Alaska and the nation. These services include the gathering of food and fiber by Alaskan communities, the importance of ecosystems to recreation, cultural, and spiritual activities of people in Alaska, and the way that land cover and vegetation in ecosystems affect temperature and water flow (runoff, flooding etc.) throughout the state. Assessments of the effects of climate change on these “ecosystem services” have been hindered by a lack of tools (e.g. computer models) capable of forecasting future landscapes in a changing climate while taking into account numerous...
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Over the past century, Hawaiʻi has experienced a pronounced decline in precipitation and stream flow and a number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. Several climate-related factors are influencing Hawaiˈi’s landscapes and contributing to these changes. These include climate change, climate variability, and drought (referred to collectively as CCVD). Climate variability describes how the climate fluctuates on a yearly basis around average values, while climate change describes patterns of long-term continuous change in the average. While it is understood that CCVD...
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Salmon that spawn and rear in Southeast Alaska watersheds are critically important to the region’s economic vitality and cultural identity. An estimated 90% of rural households in Southeast Alaska use salmon. Environmental changes that compromise the ability of these streams to support salmon could have dramatic consequences for the region. In particular, there is concern that climate change could undermine the capacity of the region’s streams to support productive fisheries. As a result, regional stakeholders are interested in identifying some of the potential impacts of climate change on watersheds that support abundant salmon. These stakeholders include federal and state agencies (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,...
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Permafrost – the thick layer of permanently frozen soil found in Arctic regions – has been thawing rapidly over the past century due to climate change. When permafrost thaws unevenly, it produces thermokarst landscapes, irregular surfaces of small hills interspersed with hollows. The processes that produce thermokarst can lead to significant changes within the surrounding ecosystems, altering water quality, vegetation, and water, carbon, and nutrient storage and flows. These changes can have substantial implications for fish and wildlife populations and disrupt rural communities and infrastructure. The goal of this project was to better understand the extent of thermokarst processes and the rate at which they...
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One of the most visible signs of climate change is less mountain snow. In the Western U.S., deep snow has historically been a cornerstone of life for many plants and animals. For example, snow can provide denning shelter for certain species like the wolverine, and snowmelt provides dependable water to mountain streams that are home to fish like the bull trout. Yet snow losses driven by warming temperatures are already causing land and water managers to rethink whether certain species can thrive in the future. A recently completed study by this research team helped the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service investigate whether wolverines will have enough snow to survive in two areas of the Rocky Mountains. In June 2020,...
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Barrier islands protect mainland areas from storm surge, but can erode over time and require restoration. Ship Island, a barrier island off the coast of Mississippi, provides an example of this: the island was battered by Hurricane Camille in 1969 and split into two separate islands. As part of the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers plans to use approximately 22 million cubic yards of sand to close the gap between East and West Ship Islands. This will restore both the island’s physical integrity and habitat for important species such as sea turtles, shorebirds, and Gulf sturgeon. This project served as a case study to test the usefulness of structured decision-making – a...
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Submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities are highly productive ecosystems that provide significant ecological benefits to coastal areas, including essential calories for wintering waterfowl. However, the potential effects of sea-level rise is posing new questions about the future availability of SAV for waterfowl and other coastal wildlife. Of primary concern is the fact that rising seas have the potential to increase salinities in fresh and brackish marshes on the Gulf of Mexico’s coast, changing the distribution and composition of SAV communities, and affecting valuable waterfowl habitat and food resources. Not enough is known about the relationship between salinity and SAV to predict how this important...
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Ecosystem services, or the benefits that natural ecosystems provide to people, are inherently spatial, tied to the specific ecosystems that create them. Mapping where ecosystem services are abundant or in short supply and identifying what lands provide certain services is useful for a variety of purposes, including land-use planning, assessment of conservation and restoration priorities, and identification of environmental justice issues. This project maps current ecosystem services, potential for future changes, and opportunity areas for management actions to enhance or protect ecosystem services for the southeastern United States. Data from publicly available, national-scale sources was used wherever possible...
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Human impacts occurring throughout the DOI Northeast Climate Science Center, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on streams in the region which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment,...
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In ecosystems characterized by flowing water, such as rivers and streams, the dynamics of how the water moves - how deep it is, how fast it flows, how often it floods - have direct effects on the health, diversity, and sustainability of underlying communities. Yet increasingly, climate extremes like droughts and floods are disrupting fragile stream ecosystems by specifically changing their internal aquatic flows. Human infrastructure, such as irrigation and dams, further disrupt these dynamics. These changes in climate and land use are leading to teh fragmentation of aquatic habtiat, degraded water quality, altered sediment transport processes, variation in the timing and duration of floodplain inundation, shifts...
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The Rio Grande-Rio Bravo River is the second longest river in the US and is a critical drinking water source for more than 13 million people. It flows south from the snow-capped mountains of Colorado through the New Mexico desert, forms the border between Texas and Mexico, and empties into the Gulf of Mexico at Brownsville, Texas. The multi-national, multi-state, ecologically diverse nature of this river makes management of the resource a complex task, especially in the context of more frequent droughts, changes in land use patterns, and increasing water use needs. The main objective of this project was to assess the state of water resources management policies and planning tools for the Lower Rio Grande-Rio Bravo...
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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in walleye and other native fishes, and worsening water quality due to increases in temperature and shifts in precipitation, has prompted concern among regional anglers who may abandon certain fisheries as these changes occur. Understanding how changes in climate may affect glacial lakes region fishes, and how fishery managers...
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This summit will convene leaders from Tribes and First Nations throughout the Pacific Northwest and North America to advance tribal climate change policy and action. The Summit will focus on topics such as tribal climate change resiliency, protecting and applying Traditional Knowledge in climate change initiatives, and implementing a unified tribal climate change policy agenda. Co-sponsors for this event include the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI), Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC), PNW Tribal Climate Change Network, and the Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center.


    map background search result map search result map Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Development of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model to Illustrate Future Landscape Change Assessing the Vulnerability of Vegetation to Future Climate in the North Central U.S. Monitoring Thermokarst on the Landscapes of Northern Alaska FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Understanding the Nexus between Climate, Streamflow, Water Quality, and Ecology in the Arkansas-Red River Basin Structured Decision-Making as a Tool for Coastal Restoration: A Case Study on Ship Island, Mississippi Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Assessing the State of Water Resource Knowledge and Tools for Future Planning in the Lower Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Ecosystem Services Mapping Datasets Support for the 2019 Tribes and First Nations Climate Change Summit The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on River Food Webs and Salmon Productivity in Southeast Alaska Estimating Future High-Mountain Snowpack to Inform Terrestrial and Aquatic Species Status Assessments, Recovery Plans, and Monitoring Future of Aquatic Flows: Towards a National Synthesis of Streamflow Regimes Under a Changing Climate Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on River Food Webs and Salmon Productivity in Southeast Alaska Understanding the Nexus between Climate, Streamflow, Water Quality, and Ecology in the Arkansas-Red River Basin Support for the 2019 Tribes and First Nations Climate Change Summit Monitoring Thermokarst on the Landscapes of Northern Alaska Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Assessing the State of Water Resource Knowledge and Tools for Future Planning in the Lower Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin Estimating Future High-Mountain Snowpack to Inform Terrestrial and Aquatic Species Status Assessments, Recovery Plans, and Monitoring Ecosystem Services Mapping Datasets FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Assessing the Vulnerability of Vegetation to Future Climate in the North Central U.S. Development of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model to Illustrate Future Landscape Change Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Future of Aquatic Flows: Towards a National Synthesis of Streamflow Regimes Under a Changing Climate