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The Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative and the Southeast Climate Science Center developed a new resource - Keeping Pace: A short guide to navigating sea-level rise models! This quick four pager covers the importance of model selection, helpful concepts, model categories, and an example of how to utilize these models to address coastal issues. This resource was largely informed by the Sea-Level Rise Modeling Handbook: Resource Guide for Coastal Land Managers, Engineers, and Scientists, which resulted from a Southeast CSC funded project.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Science Tools for Managers,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Southeast CASC,
State of the Science,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Aim Climate change is expected to result in the tropicalization of coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as warming winters allow tropical mangrove forests to expand their distribution poleward at the expense of temperate salt marshes. Data limitations near mangrove range limits have hindered understanding of the effects of winter temperature extremes on mangrove distribution and structure. Here, we investigated the influence of extreme freeze events on the abundance, height and coverage of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans ) near their northern range limit in Louisiana. Location Coastal Louisiana, USA. Methods We quantified the relationships between the frequency of extreme freeze events and A. germinans...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from Journal for Nature Conservation): As a zoonotic disease with unprecedented global impacts, COVID-19 may influence how people prioritize issues related to wildlife conservation. Using a nationally representative sample of US residents, we investigated: (1) how COVID-19 affected the relative importance of conservation issues among adults with different political ideologies, and (2) how the pandemic affected political polarization of conservation issues during the 2020 general election in the United States. Conservation issues such as endangered species and controlling zoonotic disease ranked low in importance among the 14 policy issues considered, even lower than environmental issues such as climate...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0173844): Urban habitats are characterized by impervious surfaces, which increase temperatures and reduce water availability to plants. The effects of these conditions on herbivorous insects are not well understood, but may provide insight into future conditions. Three primary hypotheses have been proposed to explain why multiple herbivorous arthropods are more abundant and damaging in cities, and support has been found for each. First, less complex vegetation may reduce biological control of pests. Second, plant stress can increase plant quality for pests. And third, urban warming can directly increase pest fitness and abundance. These...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Other Wildlife,
Plants,
Southeast CASC,
Wildlife and Plants
Abstract (from Ecology and Society): Coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development, and climate change and other stressors are now further degrading the capacity of those ecological and social systems to remain resilient in the face of such disturbances. We sought to identify potential ways in which local conservation interests in the Lowcountry of South Carolina (USA) could participate in a social process of adaptation planning, and how that process might ultimately be broadened to engage a more diverse set of partners. We engaged participants through a combination of informal meetings, workshops, and other collaborative interactions to explore how the conservation community...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water management decisions. We present a framework and methods for integrating hydrology, geographic context and metapopulation processes to simulate effects of changes in streamflow on fish occupancy dynamics across a landscape of interconnected stream segments. We illustrate this approach using a 482 km2 catchment in the southeastern US supporting 50 or more stream fish species. A spatially distributed, deterministic and physically based hydrologic model is used to simulate daily streamflow for sub-basins composing the catchment. We use geographic data...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Southeast CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
aquatic biodiversity,
fluvial geomorphology,
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1752-1688.12304/abstract): The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Hydrology,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
SERAP,
Southeast CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic understanding...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Climate change,
Other Wildlife,
Plants,
Southeast CASC,
Wildlife and Plants,
Abstract (from http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/11-2296.1): Physiological tolerance of environmental conditions can influence species-level responses to climate change. Here, we used species-specific thermal tolerances to predict the community responses of ant species to experimental forest-floor warming at the northern and southern boundaries of temperate hardwood forests in eastern North America. We then compared the predictive ability of thermal tolerance vs. correlative species distribution models (SDMs) which are popular forecasting tools for modeling the effects of climate change. Thermal tolerances predicted the responses of 19 ant species to experimental climate warming at the southern site,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Duke Forest,
Harvard Forest,
Massachusetts,
North Carolina,
Other Wildlife,
We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stands that are managed for timber production. Regional outbreaks of SPB occur in bursts resulting in elimination of entire stands and major economic loss. These outbreaks are often interspersed with decades of inactivity, making long-term modeling of SPB dynamics challenging. Forest management techniques, including thinning, have proven effective and are often recommended...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Landscapes,
Other Landscapes,
South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative,
Southeast CASC,
Southeastern United States,
Abstract (from Frontiers in Communication): The efficacy of science communication can be influenced by the cultural values and cognitions of target audiences, yet message framing rarely accounts for these cognitive factors. To explore the effects of message framing tailored to specific audiences, we investigated relationships between one form of cultural cognition—political ideology—and perceptions about the zoonotic origins of the COVID-19 pandemic using a nationally representative Qualtrics XM panel (n = 1,554) during August 2020. First, we examined differences in attitudes towards science (in general) and COVID-19 (specifically) based on political ideology. We found that, compared to conservatives and moderates,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from Landscape and Urban Planning): Cultural resources in coastal parks and recreation areas are vulnerable to climate change. The US National Park Service (NPS) is facing the challenge of insufficient budget allocations for both maintenance and climate adaptation of historic structures. Research on adaptation planning for cultural resources has predominately focused on vulnerability assessments of heritage sites; however, few studies integrate multiple factors (e.g., vulnerability, cultural significance, use potential, and costs) that managers should consider when making tradeoff decisions about which cultural resources to prioritize for adaptation. Moreover, heritage sites typically include multiple...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from Tourism Management): Substantial climate change impacts threaten the persistence of cultural resources globally. The need exists for conceptualizing decision support tools that focus on quantifying and optimizing the managerial priorities to leverage historic preservation and adaptation actions that enhance the continuity of heritage values and sites. Informed by the Structured Decision Making (SDM) approach, this study advances the singular objective Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model, a decision support tool for climate adaptation planning of historic buildings by considering three tourism management objectives: (a) maximize accumulated resource value, (b) maximize cost-efficiency, and (c) minimize...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Landscapes,
Plants,
Southeast CASC,
Southeast CASC,
Abstract (from ScienceDirect ) Ecosystem accounts, as formalized by the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Experimental Ecosystem Accounts (SEEA EEA), have been compiled in a number of countries, yet there have been few attempts to develop them for the U.S. We explore the potential for U.S. ecosystem accounting by compiling ecosystem extent, condition, and ecosystem services supply and use accounts for a 10-state region in the Southeast. The pilot accounts address air quality, water quality, biodiversity, carbon storage, recreation, and pollination for selected years from 2001 to 2015. Results illustrate how information from ecosystem accounts can contribute to policy and decision making. Using an example...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Dynamic reserve site selection,
Fire,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Rural disaster recovery governance focuses on the actions that governments take to address the immediate economic, environmental, and infrastructure needs of communities, but does not consider the structural limitations of rural communities, or the transformational power of community leadership. Applying knowledge of community leadership, governance, and social capital in a rural community where social relationships and local-level leadership are central to external interactions provides space to understand the challenges, opportunities, and limitations of disaster recovery governance and leadership systems. To do this, we conduct a secondary thematic analysis of 30 interviews of 32 disaster recovery leaders in...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Summary (from NESP Methods Brief Series): This methods brief focuses on water purification by natural land cover, which removes nonpoint-source pollutants from runoff water before they reach waterways. This analysis maps natural land cover within the likely flowpaths of water from agricultural areas to waterways. Regional priority areas for the restoration of additional natural land cover in the flowpaths and for the conservation of existing natural land cover in the flowpaths are identified based on the amount of agricultural land and the proportion of flowpaths that are made up of purifying natural land cover. Spatial datasets for these priority areas and associated metrics are available on ScienceBase.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers): Agricultural best management practices (BMPs) reduce nonpoint-source pollution from cropland. Goals for BMP adoption and expected pollutant load reductions are often specified in water quality management plans to protect and restore waterbodies; however, estimates of the needed load reductions and pollutant removal performance of BMPs are generally based on historic climate. Increasing air temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are anticipated throughout the U.S. over the 21st century. The effects of such changes on agricultural pollutant loads have been addressed by several studies, but how these changes will affect...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Climate change impacts ecosystems variably in space and time. Landscape features may confer resistance against environmental stressors, whose intensity and frequency also depend on local weather patterns. Characterizing spatio-temporal variation in population responses to these stressors improves our understanding of what constitutes climate change refugia. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical framework that allowed us to differentiate population responses to seasonal weather patterns depending on their “sensitive” or “resilient” states. The framework inferred these sensitivity states based on latent trajectories delineating dynamic state probabilities. The latent trajectories are composed of linear initial conditions,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
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